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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 161826
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM LATE MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM...VERY LGT PCPN MVG INTO THE WRN ZONES ATTM. COOL AIR AND
CLDS KEEPING THE TEMPS DOWN SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS THRU THE 1ST
PD WITH HI/S XPCTD WELL BLO GUID. OTRW...POP FCST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. CNSRDG REMOVING SVR MENTION FROM HWO WITH CLDS AND COOL
SFC AIR...MRGNL UPR INSTABILITY NOT LIKEY TO TRIGGER ORGANIZED
TRWS. PRVS DISC BLO.


4 AM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED DAY AS A SFC LOW IN NRN MI MOVES EAST. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN MI AND WRN OH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA MIDDAY AND CONTINUE MOST OF THE AFTN. GOOD WIND SHEAR ALL
LEVELS AND CONDITIONAL LAPSE RATES AT MID LEVELS. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS HOW UNSTABLE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE. ALREADY CLOUDED UP WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ECHOES ON RADAR MOSTLY
VIRGA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 1K CAPE AND SOME CASES
ONLY A FEW HUNDRED. WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. LIFT ENHANCED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET. AT THE SFC THE TROF WILL PROVIDE LIFT. SPC STILL
THE AREA IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WITH LITTLE HEATING DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY AND MAY GET ONLY ONE OR TWO STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOOD
ISSUES. QPF MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE
AMOUNTS TO AN INCH BUT THAT IS BELOW FFG. PWATS PEAK AROUND 1.6
INCHES FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
TONIGHT LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN EVE TSTORM. SFC LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS SE CANADA. LITTLE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY BUT MOISTURE REMAINS.

MONDAY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CWA WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN A QUESTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
SFC INSTABILITY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES. DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELDS. UL JET CORE COMES THROUGH REGION MONDAY SO UL
DIVERGENCE UNCERTAIN AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS THE SFC FRONT SLOWS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE NOW STACKED LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS NE SLOWLY.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY TO TUES NGT. GFS KEEPS THE REGION DRY AS
A LARGE SFC HIGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND FRONT STAYS WELL SE.
THIS SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS RUN. THE NAM AND EURO STALL
THE FRONT WHILE A WAVE MOVES NE ALONG IT BRINGING MORE RAIN TO NY
AND PA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THEN TAPERING IT OFF TUES NGT AS THE
RAIN MOVES BACK SE. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE ROAD AND HAVE SCHC
POPS N TO CHC POPS NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM SUN UPDATE... ONCE AGN...NO CHGS MADE TO THE LONG-TERM GRIDS
THIS MRNG...AS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT GFS/EC
RUNS...BASICALLY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AN ERN PACIFIC/NWRN CONUS TROUGH...CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE...AND SERN CANADIAN/NERN STATES TROUGH PATN IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY BY LTR THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY ALLOW RISING HGTS TO TAKE PLACE OVER NY/PA...RESULTING
IN MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS (HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S-MID 80S) THAN
WE`VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO SEEING IN THE RECENT PAST. IN GENERAL...EC
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGS BLO THAT OF THE MEX.
OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS ARE PROBABLY
BETTER...SPCLY FROM THU ONWARD. HOWEVER...WPC`S TEMPS ARE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...SO WE`VE KEPT WITH THAT FCST
FOR NOW.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...NY/PA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE SFC HIGH...ALG WITH RISING HGTS ALOFT...FOR MOST OF THE PD. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY RAIN-FREE WX. ONCE
WE GET OUT TWDS THE END OF THE PD (THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND)...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A
FRNTL BNDRY TO APPROACH FROM THE OH VLY/ERN LKS RGNS. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME UPR-LVL S/WVS (VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT)
COULD ALSO BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN WITHIN THE W-NWLY FLOW PATN
ALOFT. THUS...THE SLGT CHC-CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WE`RE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING FOR FRI NGT/SAT...SEEM JUST FINE AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE.

PREV DISC... A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM
CONTROL EARLY ON. LOOK FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON MAGNITUDE AND STRENGTH OF NEXT PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IN WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NEWLY ARRIVING
GFS MAINTAINS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR "RIPPLES" NOTED ON THE MODEL/S 500-MB HEIGHT
CONTOURS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH SHWRS/STORMS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS FRI
NGT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO
SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRI NGT WHEN UPPER FORCING
APPEARS TO BE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...SHORT DURATION IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
RME AND SYR WHERE THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
RESIDES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS HR HOWEVER OVERALL CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW AND THUS NO MENTION WITH THE CURRENT UPDATE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOR NOW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG DURATION
IFR APPEARS TO BE AT ELM AND RME WHERE VISIBILITIES BELOW
ALTERNATE MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT REMAINING STIES...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LARGELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ALTERNATE REQUIRED AND IFR
THRESHOLDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SHWRS/ISOLATED STORMS.

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THU/FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KELM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...CMG