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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 160213
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1013 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1000 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR TWEEKS TO ADJUST HOURLY
TEMP CURVE A BIT OTHERWISE WE ARE GOOD OVERNIGHT. WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST ONLY BRINGING IN CHANCE POPS AROUND 12Z AND THE LATEST
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING...TOOK
OUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK AND BLENDED WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS LATE MORNING. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

SFC HI AND RDGG ALOFT SLIDES SE TNGT AS A WEAK SFC TROF AND UPR WV
APCHS FOR SUNDAY. XPCT MAINLY CLR SKIES THIS EVENING FLWD BY
INCRSG CLDS LATE AS THE SYSTEM APRCHS. TIMING OF THE SHRT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE WRN ZONES
BEFORE 12Z...BUT IN GNRL THE OVRNGT PD WILL BE DRY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIMING NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SVR TRWS AS THERE SEEMS TO BE LTL CHANCE
FOR SUN WITH CLDS TO BEGIN THE DAY TMRW. SO...WITH THE LACK OF HTG
AND MRGNL UPR KINEMATICS FOR SVR LEAVFES US WITH A WEAK CONV
COMLPEX MVG THRU WITH EMBEDDED AND ISLTD THUNDER. ANY AREAS THAT
RCV HTG WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NEPA
AS THE SFC TROF SWEEPS THRU LTR IN THE DAY.

BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION TNGT INTO MON MRNG AS THE WV PULLS OUT
AND THE COLD FNT DROPS DOWN FOR SRN ONTARIO. THERES A NICE LTL JET
MAX IN THE UPR FLOW AND THE NAM DVLPS A CONC CLUSTER OVER LATE MON
INTO EARLY TUE. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE CONV ALONG THE SLOW MVG
FNT THAT PARALLELS THE UPR FLOW. WEAK SFC HI OVER THE WRN LAKES
TRIES TO BLD IN LTR TUE WHICH TRIES TO BLD IN BUT FNT SLOWS AOR
STALLS OVER CNTRL PA. THIS WILL CONT THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS
TUE...ESP OVER THE NEPA ZONES INTO THE SRN TIER.

MODEL TEMPS AGREEMENT WAS GOOD LDG TO A HIER CONFIDENCE TEMP FCST
NEAR CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY ON.
LOOK FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON MAGNITUDE AND STRENGTH OF NEXT PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IN WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NEWLY ARRIVING
GFS MAINTAINS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR "RIPPLES" NOTED ON THE MODEL/S 500-MB HEIGHT
CONTOURS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH SHWRS/STORMS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS FRI
NGT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO
SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRI NGT WHEN UPPER FORCING
APPEARS TO BE BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12 KFT AGL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOUDS BEGIN TO LOWER AND
THICKEN 10Z-14Z SUNDAY YET STILL VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION 14Z ONWARD...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS CONTAINED IN
THE SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDER
POTENTIAL...AND AT THIS TIME I INCLUDED A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP ONLY
FOR KAVP WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
ONLY SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING WEST OR
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...SOME GUSTS 15-20 KTS BUT COULD BE
HIGHER AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT THRU TUE...OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT EARLY MORNING IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...MDP