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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191954
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR
AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY
AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
330 PM UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE ARE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AMPLE SUNSHINE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE
AND MORE CLOUDS IS RIGHT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT THIS HOUR AT KROC...BUT STILL CLOSER TO 60 HERE AT THE
OFFICE. THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...BUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. SMALLER SCALE
TRIGGERS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME STORMS OVER WESTERN NY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGERS BEING A LAKE BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OR
SOME SLIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FINGER LAKES BECAUSE IF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THAT AREA. LATER TONIGHT I INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. EXPECT THIS MAINLY
TO BE A HIGHER ELEVATION FEATURE BUT BASED ON SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WILL
NOT INDICATE ANYTHING MEASURING AS THE MODEL QPF FIELDS CONTINUE
TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS...LIKELY A RESULT OF TERRAIN PLAYING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
330 PM UPDATE...

MONDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING LOW. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THAT MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE DAY. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN`T RULE OUT ANY STORMS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID BEST BET APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART
ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD FALL APART MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AS
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...TEMPS MAY BE THE
BIGGER STORY WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY
MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR OR EVEN JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT EACH DAY. CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER
80S BUT THE MET CLOSER TO LOWER 80S. I HAVE NOTICED BOTH THE MET
AND MAV HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND WILL BUMP
UP TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. RELUCTANT TO GO
TOO MUCH WARMER LIKE THE MAV WITH BOUNDARY/CLOUD/PRECIP ISSUES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
IFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT KITH/KBGM CIGS WILL DROP BELOW ALT MIN
OVERNIGHT WITH KRME/KELM/KAVP OCCASIONALLY FALLING INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING, A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A WEAK SFC TROF
APPROACHES TH REGION.

WINDS S-SE BETWEEN AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM