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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 150540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
945 PM UPDATE...
ALL LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS HAVE FINISHED
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO FIND LOW TO MID 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MOST LOCATIONS AT 9 PM ALREADY HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS
THAN 10 DEGREES...WITH CORTLAND WINNING THE RACE AT 88 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALREADY. THE CLEAR SKY...DECOUPLING WIND...AND
THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS TO YIELD GOOD AMOUNT
OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. I FURTHER
AMPED UP THE COVERAGE OF WHAT FOG WAS ALREADY IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TRAINED NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES...AND
EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN PIKE COUNTY...PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF
UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR A FEW SMALL BASINS. THAT BEING
SAID...ASSOCIATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THAT ACTIVITY FALLING APART FROM LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. OTHER THAN GENERAL REPORTS OF BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS...WE HAVE THUS FAR NOT HEARD OF ACTUAL FLOODING ISSUES FROM
THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...UNLIKE IMMEDIATELY EAST IN
SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN THE NWS ALBANY COUNTY WARNING AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRED.

NEAR TERM GRIDS FINESSED AS NEEDED TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF END FOR
REMAINING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE EAST...AND THE FULL
CLEARING OUT OF SKY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE FOR REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. MODEL RH
PROGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE CONTROLLED
TO SOME DEGREE THANKS TO PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH VALUES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
CONVERGING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY RESERVOIRS
CONSOLIDATE TO OUR WEST IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE NEXT
SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SAID...SFC PATTERN IS ANYTHING BUT EASY TO
DECIPHER AS BOTH WRF AND GFS 925-MB THETA-E CONTOURS SHOW WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
6-12Z SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH GFS AND WRF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT QPF
COMING BACK TO THE REGION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER FORCING
SUPPLIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRAIGHT-LINE JET TO OUR
NORTH AND THE PASSING OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES. OF MORE
INTEREST...MODEL 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO AN ARRIVING
500-HPA JET OF ROUGHLY 50 KTS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WX. TIMING AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION
AS IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HRS WHEN MAIN EML WERE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST MAY BE LIMITED.
REGARDLESS...SCENARIO MOST CERTAINLY LOOKS INTERESTING AND
DEFINITELY WARRANTS WATCHING. BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE...HAVE
HELD BACK ON AN HWO MENTION FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY STILL LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATE TOWARDS THE REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD ERN TROF THRU THE FCST PD KEEPING THE
AREA COLL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUE AS
A COLD FNT EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHRP UPR WV PULLS NWRD INTO
CANADA. THIS IS FLWD BY A LRG HIPRES THAT DROPS FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LTR WED. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE TROF MAY
BRING MORE SHWRS OR TRWS THU AND FRI...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER
THE NRN ZONES NEARER THE PATH OF THE UPR WV.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE MEX AND HPC/ECMWF TEMP GUID WITH THE MEX
WRMR. CNSDRG THE BROAD TROF AND H8 TEMPS THE COOLER GUID SEEMED
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE PD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS WRMR TWRD THE GFS FOR AFTN HI/S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z SAT UPDATE...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MRNG (IFR
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN AT KELM...WITH MVFR AT KBGM/KITH)...VFR
SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS PD.

LGT SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL TURN NWLY AT ARND 10 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S AND SW THIS EVE AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN AM...VFR.

SUN PM/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

WED...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ