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000
FXUS61 KBGM 150031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
831 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TRAINED NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES...AND
EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN PIKE COUNTY...PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF
UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR A FEW SMALL BASINS. THAT BEING
SAID...ASSOCIATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED...WITH THAT ACTIVITY FALLING APART FROM LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. OTHER THAN GENERAL REPORTS OF BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS...WE HAVE THUS FAR NOT HEARD OF ACTUAL FLOODING ISSUES FROM
THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...UNLIKE IMMEDIATELY EAST IN
SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF NWS ALBANY WHERE
FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED.

NEAR TERM GRIDS FINESSED AS NEEDED TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF END FOR
REMAINING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE EAST...AND THE FULL
CLEARING OUT OF SKY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF A UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS HAS LED TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. FURTHER REMOVED...DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY APPEARED TO FIRE OFF A ONEIDA LAKE
LAKE BREEZE. ALL TOLD...SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FACTORS COMING
TOGETHER TO RESULT IN THIS AFTERNOON/S SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING STABILITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND A QUICK DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
CURRENT ACTIVITY. WITH STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS REMAIN
DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN CONCERNS WITH
ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE HYDROLOGIC SIDE OF THE
HOUSE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED IN
RECENT DAYS.

MOVING INTO TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND LOW
TO MID 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WE ANTICIPATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RIVER VALLY FOG
FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A FOG MENTION HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE FOR REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. MODEL RH
PROGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE CONTROLLED
TO SOME DEGREE THANKS TO PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH VALUES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
CONVERGING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY RESERVOIRS
CONSOLIDATE TO OUR WEST IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE NEXT
SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SAID...SFC PATTERN IS ANYTHING BUT EASY TO
DECIPHER AS BOTH WRF AND GFS 925-MB THETA-E CONTOURS SHOW WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
6-12Z SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH GFS AND WRF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT QPF
COMING BACK TO THE REGION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER FORCING
SUPPLIED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRAIGHT-LINE JET TO OUR
NORTH AND THE PASSING OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES. OF MORE
INTEREST...MODEL 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO AN ARRIVING
500-HPA JET OF ROUGHLY 50 KTS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WX. TIMING AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION
AS IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HRS WHEN MAIN EML WERE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST MAY BE LIMITED.
REGARDLESS...SCENARIO MOST CERTAINLY LOOKS INTERESTING AND
DEFINITELY WARRANTS WATCHING. BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE...HAVE
HELD BACK ON AN HWO MENTION FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH RESIDUAL ACTIVITY STILL LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATE TOWARDS THE REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD ERN TROF THRU THE FCST PD KEEPING THE
AREA COLL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUE AS
A COLD FNT EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHRP UPR WV PULLS NWRD INTO
CANADA. THIS IS FLWD BY A LRG HIPRES THAT DROPS FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LTR WED. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE TROF MAY
BRING MORE SHWRS OR TRWS THU AND FRI...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER
THE NRN ZONES NEARER THE PATH OF THE UPR WV.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE MEX AND HPC/ECMWF TEMP GUID WITH THE MEX
WRMR. CNSDRG THE BROAD TROF AND H8 TEMPS THE COOLER GUID SEEMED
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE PD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS WRMR TWRD THE GFS FOR AFTN HI/S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KELM THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR
CALM CONDITIONS...A MOIST GROUND...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
WELL BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP WILL LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOR
AT KELM. BASED ON HOURLY TEMP GUIDANCE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS ARE FIRST
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z BEFORE RAPID IMPROVEMENT DUE TO
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE.

WINDS NEAR CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT/SUN AM...VFR.

SUN PM/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

WED...VFR.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN