-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 222353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS UPDATED FOR EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. NASTY HAIL
CORE STORM IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. JUST
GOT TENNIS BALL HAIL FROM IT. PLENTY OF HAIL REPORTS THUS FAR FOR
THIS EVENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MANY WIND REPORTS.
HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF LESSER CORE STORMS ARE MOVING SW TO NE FROM
CENTRAL PA AND MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LOOK TO
THE STORMS ON RADAR...DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE REALIZING SIGNIFICANT AND IN
SOME CASES DAMAGING COLD POOL WIND GUSTS. THIS INCLUDES NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES IN STEUBEN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREAWIDE
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY 03Z-04Z AS THAT
ACTIVITY EXITS.

330 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF TSTMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY CREATED A LITTLE
MESO HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE WHICH ALLOWED GOOD SUNSHINE OVER NE PA
AND CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE UPR 80S IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND NW UP THROUGH BRADFORD AND THE CHEMUNG RIVER
VALLEY. GOOD MIXING IN THIS AREA DROPPED DEW PTS INTO THE MID AND
UPR 50S. CU FIELD IS STARTING TO GROW OVER OUR WRN AREA AND THE
RADAR IS STARTING TO PICK UP NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HENCE ANOTHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MESO MODELS INDICATE
A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL REBOUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOTICEABLY DROP WITH SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL AKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CETRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION 00Z-04Z. TAFS REFLECT
EXPECTED TIMING OF THESE CELLS WITH PRIMARILY WIND GUST IMPACTS.
AFTER THAT THINGS WILL WIND DOWN...THOUGH WITH MVFR VIS AND/OR CIG
FOR SOME TERMINALS. MVFR CIG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AS PER
PROB30 GROUPS IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/MDP
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM