-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
839
FXUS61 KBGM 031723
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
123 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions expected again today, but clouds will
increase this afternoon. A slow moving frontal system will
enter the area early Saturday morning and bring rain showers and
cooler conditions for this weekend. High pressure, with dry and
warm conditions return again on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes with the mid morning and noontime updates,
forecast on track.

350 AM Update...

Dry and warm conditions will continue again today with ridging
still overhead. However, ridging will push eastward and upper
level clouds will start pushing in this afternoon ahead of an
approaching frontal system. This system will kick off some
showers that will start to enter our western zones by early
Saturday morning, but the majority of the rain showers should
hold off until the daytime on Saturday. Showers will become more
widespread across the area Saturday afternoon as shortwave
pushes northeast out of the Ohio and into NE PA and Central NY.
Forecast soundings show very little if any instability Saturday
afternoon, so removed any mention of thunder with this morning`s
forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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120 PM Update...

Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during
this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an
occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure
system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by
Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few
thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up
to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could
drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model
guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms.
Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low
60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off
of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers
Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this
system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more
favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak
system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high
pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on
Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon
and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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120 PM Update...

A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the
arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move
in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This
should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now
Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm
front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in
more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern
continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance
moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this
period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s
and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 10 knots or
less. Some lowering of ceilings late in the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...A couple passing
frontal boundaries will result in scattered showers and
restrictions, especially Saturday night onward. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible.

Monday... Mainly VFR.

Monday Night through Wednesday...VFR then increasing chance of
rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon through night. Embedded
thunder also possible late Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK