-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 171728
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
VALLEY FOG WILL BE COMMON AGAIN BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 10. A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
INTERESTING FCST SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION TODAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE AREA IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. EARLY MORNING RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL NY ZONES. LATEST RUC
MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE ARE ALREADY SHOWING A
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS OF OVER 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS HR. THAT SAID...12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS THE HIGHLY
IDENTIFIABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SIGNAL WITH NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES EXTENDING THROUGH MID-LEVELS ATOP A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CAP. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT AND
THE ENTRANCE OF A 100+KT JET LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SET THE
STAGE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. QUICK LOOK
AT AREA OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE LOCALLY RUN
SEVERE WX CHECKLIST SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WX WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENCED ON LATEST 7.4 MICRON SOUNDER IMAGERY COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY SHEARED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. OBVIOUSLY A SITUATION THAT DEFINITELY
WARRANTS CONTINUED EVALUATION AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS LATER TODAY. IN ANY EVENT FOR
THIS UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT LINE OF
THINKING BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVED RAOB
DATA.

4 AM UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE RME AND SYR AREAS HAVE
DISSIPATED TO A SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER. NEXT SHORT WAVE IN MICHIGAN
WILL COME THROUGH UPSTATE NY THIS AFTN. CONTINUE TO BE IN BROAD
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. A SFC LOW OVER SE CANADA HAS MOVED LITTLE.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTN. THIS AND A UL
JET WILL HELP WITH DEEP LIFT. NAM AND GFS GREATLY DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY BUT ALL MODELS CREATE PRECIP. AGAIN TODAY DECENT
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE TSTORMS AND SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT
AGAIN. BEST FORCING IN NY SO NE PA SHOULD STAY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT A SMALL LULL BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES IN AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE IN THE NW FLOW. ALSO A SFC LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE NEAR COAST. SCT TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EVE THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY ONE LAST PUSH AS UL TROF DIGS SOME INTO THE AREA. NE PA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC WITH DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE. ALSO CLOSER
TO FRONT. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET TO PROVIDE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. PROBABLY NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTH OF FRONT. WIND FIELDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND STILL
UNIDIRECTIONAL. TSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY SEVERE.

TUESDAY EVE PRECIP WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. START OF A MULTI DAY
DRY AND SEASONABLE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
BRIEF DISC DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX...SFC HIPRES IN CNTRL AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
SHRT WVS DROPPING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND STORMS
SAT NGT AND SUN. SLOWLY RISONG TEMPS IS XPCTD WITH ABV NRML OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RDG BLDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
BRIEF DISC DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX...CONV WIL FIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HRS WITH BNDRY DROPPING SWRD...AIDED BY AN UPR WV AND JET MAX
ROTATIONG THRU THE LONG WV TROF. CLRG THIS EVENING WITH THE DRIER
AIR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF ST OVER THE NRN ZONES IN THE CAA. SOME
CLRG AND RETURN TO VFR ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THRU FRI...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...CMG/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM