-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 230613
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
213 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER YET DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT WINDING DOWN QUICKLY...BUT PERSISTS WITH YET ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
REMAINS OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN POCONOS/CATSKILLS. LULL
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. GRIDS UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM WHICH
SHOULD WORK OUT WELL. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES 09Z- 12Z...WITH QUICK INITIATION OF SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS DUE TO MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF INHIBITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL MAKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CENTRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/MDP
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MSE