-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190721
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SHRA...ONE THAT WAS
TRACKING SEWRD INTO C NY IN ASSCTN WITH A SMALL RIPPLE IN THE W-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLO. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
PRESSING UP AGAINST THE RETREATING UPR LVL TROF OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH THIS WEAK WAVE. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THRU AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPR CONFLUENT ZONE OFF THE
EAST COAST...WE WILL SEE ISLD SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP NOT EVEN REACHING THE GRND.

THE SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SHRA WAS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN
NJ. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL
SHOW LIGHT PRECIP WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO
C NY. THE DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT
CONTINUAL SMALL SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE DURG THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA.
THE LL AGEO WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP
THRU NJ INTO NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT
WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD
ISLD-SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO
CHC POPS IN THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER
IN THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.

FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINITIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.

HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH, LEADING TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS. MVFR CIGS AT
KAVP WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NY TERMINALS BY 09Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS AT KAVP/KBGM AND KITH THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
MIXING RESULTS IN CIGS RISING TO MVFR. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT
KSYR AND KRME CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z AT KRME AND THROUGH
18Z AT KSYR, WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR EXPECTED
AFTER. IFR AND LOW MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AT
KAVP/KBGM/KELM AND KITH.

WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PVN