-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 161437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1030 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FURTHER BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES /AS WAS ALREADY BECOME EVIDENT/...AND ALSO TO KEEP UP WITH
FASTER-THAN-FORECAST WARMING THAT IS UNDERWAY. MODELS TYPICALLY
STRUGGLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THIS SITUATION. DRY AIR FROM ALOFT
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING STEEP LAPSE RATES/MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 700-600MB
LEVELS. AS ALREADY ACCOUNTED FOR IN FORECAST...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOST OF QUEBEC...BEHIND
APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AS DEPICTED BY 800-850MB RH
FIELDS IN RUC AND WRFARW MODELS...A BAND OF CLOUDS AT AROUND 4-5
KFT AGL SHOULD ACCOMPANY SECONDARY FRONT AS IT DROPS DOWN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY HELP TO STAVE OFF PATCHY FROST THREAT IN
COLD AIR DRAINAGE PRONE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NY LATE
TODAY. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE ANY POSSIBILITY
FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL APPROACH WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH HEALTHY BL-850MB WINDS PROGGED,
AND A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UL RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 850MB
TEMPS OVERHEAD.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FAIR WEATHER PERIOD, WITH MILD SUNNY DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME UPPER 30S MINS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OVER
THE EASTERN FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME REMAINS LESS THAN
STELLAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS
DISAGREEING ON THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF NEXT WEEK/S UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
PROBLEM REMAINS UPPER BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND REMNANT
UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE STALLING TO OUR EAST BY THE WEEKEND
ENSURING CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION IN BRINGING DECENT
RIDGING ALOFT INTO OUR AREAS BY LATE SUN...WHILE THE GFS DELAYS
AND EVEN SUPPRESSES THE APPROACHING RIDGE WITH ITS SUGGESTION THAT
A MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. IN ANY EVENT...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED SOUTH OF THE FCST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN POPS MADE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BEYOND
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC/S GUIDANCE TRENDS WHICH FAVORS A
FAIRLY DECENT WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONTS THRU THE PD. NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL CONT THRU THE PD
KEEPING SKIES CLR OR SCT AT WORST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY DIURNALLY WITH MIXING...OTRW LTL CHG THRU THE 24 HR PD.


OUTLOOK...

FRI THROUGH MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
DEW POINTS FORECAST. TEN HOUR FUEL LEVELS WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG
CRITERIA DUE TO FA WIDE GREEN UP. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENHANCED
FIRE SENSITIVITY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS AREAWIDE SHOULD GET INTO 20S
PERCENT RANGE. PEAK GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST PA...AND 25-35 MPH OR SO IN CENTRAL NY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...DGM
FIRE WEATHER...DJP/MDP