-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 151740
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS EVENING...LEAVING
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS JUST FINISHING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. IT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS BUT ALSO SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE
LAKE PLAIN TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS.

THOUGH WE HAD AT LEAST SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT EARLIER...IT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS WE GET OVERTAKEN BY THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
/SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCE/ OF THE LARGER MAIN JET MAXIMUM THAT IS
PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO. ALSO...WHAT
HAS BECOME VERY APPARENT ON 7.4 MICRON IMAGERY IS ELEVATED DRY
MIXED LAYER PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WHILE
THIS IS YIELDED THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT ALLOWED FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS EARLIER...IT WILL ALSO HAVE DETRIMENTAL
EFFECT ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT BECAUSE OF
MID LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER LIMITING
COVERAGE. THAT BEING SAID...QUICK WARMING IS NOW OCCURRING IN THE
FAIRLY SUNNY WARM SECTOR AND THUS SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION.

WHILE WE STILL NEED MONITOR THINGS DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND THUS GUSTY WIND THREAT...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
AND ISOLATED. ATTEMPTED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING YET STILL
ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AS IT HEADS SOUTH AND EAST /AND WHERE IT
OCCURS...A GUSTY WIND THREAT/. HOWEVER...THE GAPPY COVERAGE OF
INITIALIZING CONVECTION MEANS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY ALREADY BE
DONE WITH RAINFALL...AND EVEN WHERE IT DOES OCCUR THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL GREATLY LIMIT AMOUNTS
TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REACH UPPER
50S/LOW 60S INSTEAD OF MAINLY LOW 50S.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION QUICKLY EXIT THIS
EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKY OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM 40S TO
NEAR 50...AS FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD AND SOMEWHAT FLAT UPR TROF DVLPS KEEPING COOLER AIR IN THE
REGION DURING THE SHRT TERM. WEAK SFC HI OVER THE UPR LAKES WILL
KEEP AND NW FLOW OF DRY AIR. WV APRCHS LATE IN THE PD AND MAY
DVLPS SOME PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT UPR
CONFLUENT FLOW WILL SHEAR THE WV AND CONT TO HELP BUILD THE SFC HI
OVER THE AREA.

MODEL GUID CONTS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEAR SEASONAL AFTN
HI TEMPS...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NRML OVER NGT IN THE CLR SKIES
AND DRY AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY INTERESTING PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF GREENLAND EARLY ON. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO....CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY INCH OUT TO SEA AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE
JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND EFFECTIVELY PLACING NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ALONG
THE SFC...MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING OVER OUR REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY DRY WX BY
KEEPING A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WX
FOR SATURDAY AS THE FORMER SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE
NEWLY ARRIVING ECMWF MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH FIRM HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
REACHED. UPPER RIDGING TO FINALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH 582 DM HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VALUES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS PROGESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FA THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF, WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT BGM-ITH-ELM-
AVP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LOW DEW POINTS AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

THUR/FRI/SAT/SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...DJP