-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 160803
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR TWEEKS TO ADJUST HOURLY
TEMP CURVE A BIT OTHERWISE WE ARE GOOD OVERNIGHT. WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST ONLY BRINGING IN CHANCE POPS AROUND 12Z AND THE LATEST
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING...TOOK
OUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK AND BLENDED WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS LATE MORNING. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

SFC HI AND RDGG ALOFT SLIDES SE TNGT AS A WEAK SFC TROF AND UPR WV
APCHS FOR SUNDAY. XPCT MAINLY CLR SKIES THIS EVENING FLWD BY
INCRSG CLDS LATE AS THE SYSTEM APRCHS. TIMING OF THE SHRT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL JUST BE ENTERING THE WRN ZONES
BEFORE 12Z...BUT IN GNRL THE OVRNGT PD WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIMING NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SVR TRWS AS THERE SEEMS TO BE LTL CHANCE
FOR SUN WITH CLDS TO BEGIN THE DAY TMRW. SO...WITH THE LACK OF HTG
AND MRGNL UPR KINEMATICS FOR SVR LEAVES US WITH A WEAK CONV
COMPLEX MVG THRU WITH EMBEDDED AND ISLTD THUNDER. ANY AREAS THAT
RCV HTG WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NEPA
AS THE SFC TROF SWEEPS THRU LTR IN THE DAY.

BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION TNGT INTO MON MRNG AS THE WV PULLS OUT
AND THE COLD FNT DROPS DOWN FOR SRN ONTARIO. THERE`S A NICE LTL JET
MAX IN THE UPR FLOW AND THE NAM DVLPS A CONV CLUSTER OVER LATE MON
INTO EARLY TUE. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE CONV ALONG THE SLOW MVG
FNT THAT PARALLELS THE UPR FLOW. WEAK SFC HI OVER THE WRN LAKES
TRIES TO BLD IN LTR TUE WHICH TRIES TO BLD IN BUT FNT SLOWS OR
STALLS OVER CNTRL PA. THIS WILL CONT THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS
TUE...ESP OVER THE NEPA ZONES INTO THE SRN TIER.

MODEL TEMPS AGREEMENT WAS GOOD LDG TO A HIER CONFIDENCE TEMP FCST
NEAR CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
4 AM SUN UPDATE... ONCE AGN...NO CHGS MADE TO THE LONG-TERM GRIDS
THIS MRNG...AS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT GFS/EC
RUNS...BASICALLY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AN ERN PACIFIC/NWRN CONUS TROUGH...CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE...AND SERN CANADIAN/NERN STATES TROUGH PATN IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY BY LTR THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY ALLOW RISING HGTS TO TAKE PLACE OVER NY/PA...RESULTING
IN MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS (HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S-MID 80S) THAN
WE`VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO SEEING IN THE RECENT PAST. IN GENERAL...EC
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN A GOOD 5-8 DEGS BLO THAT OF THE MEX.
OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS ARE PROBABLY
BETTER...SPCLY FROM THU ONWARD. HOWEVER...WPC`S TEMPS ARE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...SO WE`VE KEPT WITH THAT FCST
FOR NOW.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...NY/PA SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE SFC HIGH...ALG WITH RISING HGTS ALOFT...FOR MOST OF THE PD. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY RAIN-FREE WX. ONCE
WE GET OUT TWDS THE END OF THE PD (THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND)...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN THE MODEL DATA THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A
FRNTL BNDRY TO APPROACH FROM THE OH VLY/ERN LKS RGNS. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME UPR-LVL S/WVS (VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT)
COULD ALSO BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN WITHIN THE W-NWLY FLOW PATN
ALOFT. THUS...THE SLGT CHC-CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WE`RE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING FOR FRI NGT/SAT...SEEM JUST FINE AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE.

PREV DISC... A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM
CONTROL EARLY ON. LOOK FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY FRIDAY AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON MAGNITUDE AND STRENGTH OF NEXT PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IN WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NEWLY ARRIVING
GFS MAINTAINS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR "RIPPLES" NOTED ON THE MODEL/S 500-MB HEIGHT
CONTOURS. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH SHWRS/STORMS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS FRI
NGT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO
SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRI NGT WHEN UPPER FORCING
APPEARS TO BE BEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR EXPECTED THIS PD.

GRADUALLY LWRG AND THICKENING CLDS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS TDY...WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCTD SHWRS FOR THE EARLY AND MID-AFTN HRS...AS AN AREA
OF PCPN (SEEN OVER MI ATTM) COMES EWD ACRS NY/NRN PA. OCNL MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE SHWRS FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PD
(3-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT). A FEW ISOLD TSRA ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
DVLP THIS AFTN...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN COVERAGE...WE`LL LEAVE THIS
MENTION OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING.

LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS...PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF...WITH GUSTY WRLY WINDS SETTING IN FOR A SHORT TIME.

OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS AND PTLY CLDY SKIES...MAY ALLOW
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF LWR CLDS/FOG...SPCLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE PERSISTENT SHWRS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL SOMEWHAT OF A W-NW GRADIENT IN THE BLYR...THE EXTENT OF SUCH
RESTRICTIONS IS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...WE`VE MAINTAINED VFR CONDS
THROUGH 06Z...FIGURING THE DVLPMT OF ANY RESTRICTIVE
VSBY`S/CIGS...SHOULD THEY OCCUR...WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME EARLY MON.

OUTLOOK...
MON...MOSTLY VFR.

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP