-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR NERN PA IN ASSCTN
WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU EC NY AND THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT SHRA ACVTY
WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF LIGHT
SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER
MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.

FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD FEATURES STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHED FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN AS SRLY FLOW WL
BE PREVALENT BTWN LOW TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS UL WV APPCHS FM THE WEST. THUS, HV
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE ON WED ACRS NY ZONES CLOSER TO
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FROPA PROGGED TO OCCUR FRI MRNG PER GFS AND EC.
00Z EURO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS REGARDING UPR LVL LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND PULLING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIPRES
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.

HV DROPPED TEMPS SLGTLY AFT 12Z FRIDAY DUE TO FROPA. MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH 00Z EURO INDICATING CLD TEMPS MVG
OUT OF CANADA WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW UP THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. 00Z GEM ALSO INDICATING A DVLPNG SFC LOW
OVR THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO LATEST GFS. THUS, AM
LEANING MORE TWD WARMER GFS/GEM SOLN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HV
BLENDED LATEST WARM MAX TEMP FCST WITH COOLER WPC VALUES FOR INITIAL
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WORKING NORTH ACROSS NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE AT KBGM SITTING AT IFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TODAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT KRME
AND KSYR VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z
AND THEN BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE END OF TAF VALID TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WITH IFR EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z AT SELECT TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE BETWEEN 5-10KTS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN