-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SHRA...ONE THAT WAS
TRACKING SEWRD INTO C NY IN ASSCTN WITH A SMALL RIPPLE IN THE W-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLO. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
PRESSING UP AGAINST THE RETREATING UPR LVL TROF OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH THIS WEAK WAVE. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THRU AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPR CONFLUENT ZONE OFF THE
EAST COAST...WE WILL SEE ISLD SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP NOT EVEN REACHING THE GRND.

THE SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SHRA WAS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN
NJ. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL
SHOW LIGHT PRECIP WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO
C NY. THE DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT
CONTINUAL SMALL SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE DURG THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA.
THE LL AGEO WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP
THRU NJ INTO NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT
WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD
ISLD-SCT LGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO
CHC POPS IN THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER
IN THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.

MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.

HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
DEEPENING S-SELY FLOW FROM THE SFC-5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM A QUASI-MARINE LAYER SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENT
CONDITIONS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MARGINAL, BUT
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT
MVFR-IFR AND FUEL RESTRICTION CIGS WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER
TONIGHT. THE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT TOO MANY MILES TO
OUR SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING TO PROMOTE SATURATION. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST TRENDS FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z
UPDATE. THE KRME-KSYR AREAS MAY FAIR THE BEST BY REMAINING IN
MAINLY A VFR-MVFR CATEGORY.

WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JAB