-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 171807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHTS. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...CI SHIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCT
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OVERALL A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
STILL EXPECTED. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO
THIS THIN CLOUD COVER, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISC...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THIS PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO NY/PA, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 4C-8C ACROSS THE FA, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE FA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AFTER A DRY START TO THE PERIOD,
BAROCLINIC LIFT INVOF FRONT MAY SPUR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ON SUNDAY.

BL-850 TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH
MAXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S ON SUNDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MILDER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 PM UPDATE...

SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM BUT UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN THE EAST...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE RESULT WILL BE AN
EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL START OFF TO OUR NORTH BUT
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS
(40-50%) AS PERIODS OF RAIN APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET EVEN AT THIS
DISTANT VIEW. INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH CAPES OF 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY COOL OFF A BIT
TOWARD THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE EURO IS CORRECT...AS THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE MAY SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF COOLER AIR LOOKS
TO BE ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SWEEPING OUT EAST/EAST
BOUNDARY OUT TO SEA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 PM UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT NOW ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT AT
KAVP WITH A BROKEN MID DECK OF CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR CALM TO L/V TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN