000
FXUS61 KBGM 150832
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
432 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance moving across northern New York
could bring a stray shower to areas north of the Thruway today.
Otherwise it will remain dry and mild through Tuesday. Another
low pressure system will bring our next chance for rain on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy fog has developed across portions of Central NY, mainly
east of I-81, though it has dissipated in a few places as mid
level clouds move overhead. Expect this to last until shortly
after sunrise, and a few patches may exist west of I-81 as
well.

Otherwise, a sheared-out shortwave trough embedded in a belt of
enhanced westerly flow will graze northern NY this morning. This
will bring enhanced cloud cover to areas roughly north of I-88,
and especially north of the Thruway, where an isolated rain
shower could also pop-up through early afternoon. Expect partly
to mostly sunny skies elsewhere in the region, with cooler
temperatures across North-Central NY (but still near normal),
and warmer in the Twin Tiers and NEPA. Highs in the Wyoming
Valley will near the 70-degree mark, a solid 8-10 degrees above
normal.

Temperatures will cool down to slightly below normal overnight
with ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Fair weather will
prevail again on Tuesday, with temperatures a near repeat of
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday and most of
Tuesday night, keeping conditions dry and mild. Skies will stay
mostly sunny for most of the day, though cloud cover will increase
overnight as the next system moves in. A warm front approaches the
region Wednesday morning and passes through late in the day. Ahead
and along this front will be showers. Overnight, a cold front
approaches the region with more rain and a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Instability looks limited, so there is not a concern
for strong thunderstorms at this time.

Highs will be in the 60s both days. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the 30s and 40s but milder conditions are expected Wednesday night
as temps only fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update...

Showers continue during the daytime hours Thursday as the cold front
passes through. An upper-level low over Central Canada will drift
eastward late in the week. Prior to its arrival, there will likely
be a break as a ridge of high pressure makes a quick appearance
Thursday night into Friday morning, though have kept a chance for
showers in there for timing differences between guidance. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty as to what happens with this upper low.
With it will be a stronger cold front that brings much cooler air
into the region. Some lake showers will develop behind the front.
Despite cooler conditions, temperatures should remain warm enough
for just rain. Similarly to the previous forecast, mentionable PoPs
are present Friday and Saturday. After that, PoPs are just a slight
chance as drier conditions work into the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy fog has dissipated at RME and SYR as mid-clouds have
moved in, but these could clear out of SYR before dawn, with
brief patchy fog potentially returning. Otherwise, watching ITH
for possible shallow fog formation given saturated conditions
and thus far calm winds.

All areas will trend back to VFR by 13 or 14Z, and these
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, with light
winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPH