-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190126
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
926 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
920 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF THE SPRINKLES ARE NOW JUST MOVING OUT OF
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES
TO OUR EAST...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IF
NOT MORE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ITSELF THAT WE SEE ENOUGH OF A RETURN
FLOW TO SEE SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO NEPA. OF CLOSER CONCERN FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SOME MOVING OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THESE ARE NOT WORKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT IN NEPA SO IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER NOTHING MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE IS EXPECTED FROM THEM. WILL RAMP POPS UP TOWARD
LATER SUNDAY MORNING IN NEPA AS THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
AT SOMETHING MORE APPRECIABLE IN TERMS OF RAIN. THE PREVIOUS AFD
IS BELOW...


700 PM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS AGO AS DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTH. AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN
NEPA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER NE PA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL
OVERRUNNING, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR
AWHILE THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA FROM RETURN
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SFC
WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NE PA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.

MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.

HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
DEEPENING S-SELY FLOW FROM THE SFC-5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM A QUASI-MARINE LAYER SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENT
CONDITIONS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MARGINAL, BUT
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT
MVFR-IFR AND FUEL RESTRICTION CIGS WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER
TONIGHT. THE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT TOO MANY MILES TO
OUR SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING TO PROMOTE SATURATION. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST TRENDS FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z
UPDATE. THE KRME-KSYR AREAS MAY FAIR THE BEST BY REMAINING IN
MAINLY A VFR-MVFR CATEGORY.

WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JAB