-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.

FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.

CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.

MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.

HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM INHERITED FCST WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DECENT COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-CMC.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS. UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL
LOOKING DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FAINT HINTS THROUGH OVERLYING CIRRUS THAT LINGERING MARINE LAYER
IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SYR HAS ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT AND IS NOW
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FOR NOW WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER AT
BGM FOR A FEW MORE HRS THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS
ANTICIPATED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT ELM AND ITH...IF IFR WERE TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE BRIEF BEFORE THINGS
IMPROVE. BY LATE MORNING...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 4-8 KTS PREVAILING REGION WIDE.

AS FOR SHWRS/STORMS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SYR AND RME HOWEVER WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT
AND NO HINT OF ANY APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT LEADS TO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND THUS NO MENTION IN THE FCST AS OF NOW.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT AVP IN
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF RESTRICTIONS
AT REMAINING SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST DUE TO
MODEL/S SUGGESTION OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL NY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG