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000
FXUS61 KBGM 150831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY, TODAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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345 AM UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAINING IN
CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG HAS FORMED. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
10 AM. AFTER THAT SUNNY SKIES WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH
CLOUDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND FOLLOWED.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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345 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO THE SE WHILE A STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WITH IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS
THE CWA IN A SEE TEXT AND 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET. CLOUDY
SKIES MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE. SFC FORCING BEST WITH A
PRE FRONTAL TROF LATE MORNING. DYNAMICS GOOD WITH FALLING UL
HEIGHTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DECENT JET. COOLING AT MID LEVELS PROVIDING EXTRA CAPE. AFTER THE
TROF GOES THROUGH WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOW STRONG THE
CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDS ON DYING CONVECTION FROM LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOVING EAST. IF CONVECTION HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND WE
GET SOME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. QPF OF AROUND HALF AN INCH EXPECTED IN
NY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NE PA. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN
BANKS.

WEAK UL TROF CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW GOES FROM
MICHIGAN DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE INTO MAINE MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE SHORT
WAVES AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING SUN NGT TO MONDAY. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY NGT AS A COOL CONTINENTAL CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES SE
TOWARDS NY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD ERN TROF THRU THE FCST PD KEEPING THE
AREA COLL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUE AS
A COLD FNT EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHRP UPR WV PULLS NWRD INTO
CANADA. THIS IS FLWD BY A LRG HIPRES THAT DROPS FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LTR WED. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE TROF MAY
BRING MORE SHWRS OR TRWS THU AND FRI...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER
THE NRN ZONES NEARER THE PATH OF THE UPR WV.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE MEX AND HPC/ECMWF TEMP GUID WITH THE MEX
WRMR. CNSDRG THE BROAD TROF AND H8 TEMPS THE COOLER GUID SEEMED
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE PD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS WRMR TWRD THE GFS FOR AFTN HI/S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MRNG (IFR
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN AT KELM...WITH MVFR AT KBGM/KITH)...VFR
SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS PD.

LGT SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL TURN NWLY AT ARND 10 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S AND SW THIS EVE AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN AM...VFR.

SUN PM/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ