-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181810
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT
WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS HAS PRODUCE
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL RADARS EVEN SHOW
WEAK RETURNS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, ALTHOUGH RAIN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP GRIDS AS MID DECK IS PREVENTING TEMPS
FROM WARMING AS FAST AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. UPDATED MAXES TO
REFLECT THIS BKN MID DECK OVER THE TWIN TIERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES. FARTHER NORTH
WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNER MAXES LOOK REASONABLE. IN VCNTY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BUT WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

3 AM UPDATE...
NW FLOW WL CONTINUE TO FLING CIRRUS AT CWA TDA. THIS WL RESULT IN
MOCLDY CONDS ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES TDA THO SOME SUNSHINE MAY FILTER
THRU. FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL NY SKIES WL BE PRTLY SUNNY WITH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCRSG TO ALLOW FOR CU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. ACRS
NRN ZONES EXPECT MOSUNNY CONDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO ARND +8C WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO AND POSSIBLY ABV
THIS LVL WL YIELD AFTN MAXES IN THE LWR 70S.

AS FOR POPS THIS AFTN, 00Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW SOME SHOWER DVLPMNT
ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVNG. 12Z EURO/00Z NAM DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS, HWVR SOME HIRES MODELS DO DEPICT SHOWERS DVLPNG. THIS
LKLY IN ASSOC WITH BNDRY ALOFT MVG NORTH THRU THE AREA COUPLED WITH
H9 WINDS ARND 15KTS ALONG WITH THETA-E RIDGE. PW VALUES IN RESPONSE
TO LLM INCRSG RISE FM 0.5 INCHES TO 0.8 INCHES ACRS FAR SRN CNTYS.
THUS WL SEE A VRY SLGT RISE IN POPS AFT 21Z ACRS NEPA WITH JUST AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION FOR LATE THIS AFTN. MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO DVLP OROGRAPHICALLY ACRS WRN CATS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
BNDRY LIFTS THRU TONIGHT LEADING TO STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC
AFT 06Z ARND 25KTS. THIS WL LEAD TO AN INCRS IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
MARINE LYR APPCHG. MOCLDY SKIES WL OVRSPRD ENTIRE CWA TWD 12Z WITH
LOWEST CIGS LOCATED OVR POCONOS AND WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. HV KEPT
IN ISOLD SHOWER MENTION THRU 12Z SUNDAY, THO IT IS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY
BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. WITH MOCLDY SKIES AND SRLY FLOW
OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCALES.

SUNDAY WL FEATURE MUCH OF THE SAME AS TNGT WITH STRONG LL MOISTURE
RIDING NORTH INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WL WARM
AGAIN INTO THE 70S WITH CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTG OFF AND ON THRU THE
DAY. PW VALUES INCRS TO ARND 1 INCH WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FRCG EXPECTED AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST.

UL RIDGE APPEARS TO HOLD TUFF FOR SUN NGT, HWVR 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z
EC INDICATE UL WEAKNESS DVLPNG IN THE OH/TN VLYS. GIVEN INCRSG SFC
DWPTS AND CONTD SERLY FLOW INTO CWA, ALONG WITH WEAKNESS
UNDERCUTTING H5 RIDGE WL CONT MENTION FOR CHC SHOWERS SUNDAY NGT
WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED. SOME MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF LL FLOW BCMG MORE SWRLY WITH TIME AFT 06Z
MONDAY WITH MAJORITY OF POPS CONFINED TO SRN ZONES AFTER THIS TIME.

INSTABILITY INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH CAPES APPCHG 500 J/KG ON
LATEST NAM/GFS SOLNS THUS HV MAINTAINED CHCS FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY
AND THRU THE OVRNGT PD. DWPTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY 12Z
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM AND BYND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
200 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.

HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EVE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALL BUT SYR AND
RME 3 TO 6Z. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH 1500 FT CIGS 6 TO 9Z AT
THESE SITES. CIGS FALL FURTHER TO IFR 10 TO 14Z AT AVP AND BGM.
RME AND SYR FALL TO MVFR AROUND 10Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THROUGH 18Z.

SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC