-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 220823
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
HV UPDATED GRIDS TO CANCEL SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 203 AND RMV
MENTION OF SVR STORMS FM THE GRIDS. ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS RMN
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME WITH WMFNT ESSENTIALLY RMNG IN THE SAME
PLACE FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.

900 PM UPDATE...
SHALLOW WARM FRONT HAS NOT LIFTED MUCH...OR AT LEAST HAS BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. WEAK WAVES ALOFT
ARE CAUSING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. IN COORDINATION WITH WFO ALBANY...EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH REPEATED BATCHES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALREADY
AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LUCKILY BEFORE TODAY
THE PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED FLOOD
ISSUES...BUT AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL STILL BE VULNERABLE FOR
WATER PROBLEMS WHERE REPEATED RAINFALLS ARE OCCURRING. THAT AND
IMPERMEABLE SURFACES SUCH AS URBAN LOTS/ROADWAYS/ETC.

640 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
WARM FRONT HAS SERVED PURPOSE OF BEING AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER...AND
THUS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF LIFTING
FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CURRENT SEVERE CELLS AND ONE WITH
STRONG ROTATION /HAS TORNADO WARNING/ WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAY TRY TO HARNESS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT LATER
ACTIVITY HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT
REMAINS OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
EVEN THOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
4 AM WED UPDATE... LTL TO NO CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM.

THE 00Z WED MODEL SUITE IS STILL SINGING THE SAME TUNE ON THE
LARGE-SCALE...WITH A DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE NERN STATES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEADING TO
FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPS FOR LATE MAY (HIGHS ONLY FROM THE 50S-MID 60S).
ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNS THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT. THE EC SHOWS ONLY
VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LINGERING SHWRS FOR SAT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BUILDS SFC RIDGING INTO NY/PA MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN DRIER WX. WE`LL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...THUS MAINTAINING A PCPN-FREE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AND ALSO ALLUDED TO IN THE PREV DISC...THE
CHILLY NATURE OF THE AMS COULD WELL RESULT IN NIGHT-TIME LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. AS WE DRAW
CLOSER...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WE`LL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWDS RISING
HGTS/MODIFYING TEMPS WITH TIME.

PREV DISC... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL
RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
THIS WILL ENSURE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON JUST PASSED THROUGH
KSYR-KRME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KRME/ THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS...YET STILL POSSIBLE...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INDIVIDUAL TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
IF NECESSARY SHOULD THUNDER BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THUS
INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS COORDINATING WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND MAINLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...MDP