223
FXUS63 KBIS 071854
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
154 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers are expected to continue across western and northern
  North Dakota this afternoon, with isolated to scattered
  showers south central into the James River Valley.

- A northward moving west to east orientated line of
  thunderstorms may develop this afternoon mainly along and
  north of Highway 200. The potential for severe weather remains
  low.

- Strong westerly winds are expected along and south of Highway
  12 in far southwest North Dakota into the early evening
  today.

- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the
  end of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central
North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low
pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder
of the day today before retrograding back to the south. Very
windy conditions that are presently occurring in the far
southwest should diminish quickly this evening.

Showers will persist over much of western through central North
Dakota, especially in the west and north. A line of
thunderstorms is trying to develop mainly along and north of
Highway 200. However, with mostly cloudy skies through the day,
instability will remain limited. Therefore, the threat of
severe weather remains low as any hail will likely remain
smaller than quarter size. That said, with relatively cold air
aloft, it wouldn`t be entirely surprising if a few cold air
funnels don`t develop near the low this afternoon, while a
landspout or two isn`t entirely out of the question either.

Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to
the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. As a result,
isolated to scattered wrap-around rain showers will persist
through Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. Beyond that,
expect a west to east tilted ridge to traverse over the
Northern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. This will lead
to warmer and mostly dry conditions for the end of the workweek
through early next week. That said, weak shortwave energy
flattening the ridge could provide light rain over the far
eastern forecast area Friday afternoon, although no mentionable
PoPs are present in the forecast at this time. Breezy to windy
conditions are also expected Friday.

By this weekend, temperatures are progged to reach the low to mid
70s across most of the forecast area. These are seasonably warm
highs that are around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time
of year. Lows look to remain mostly in the 40s, which is near-
average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Rain is occurring over the northern third of western through
central North Dakota, with isolated to scattered showers over
much of the southern two thirds. A few thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon mainly along and north of Highway 200.
MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail at most terminals through the
period. However, there will be VFR ceilings at times in the
south central and especially southeast. Very windy westerly
winds are expected to continue in the far southwest through the
day today. Otherwise, expect breezy northeasterly winds across
northern North Dakota through much of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NDZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken