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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191135
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with isolated to scattered snow showers.

- Warming trend and dry Saturday into Sunday afternoon.

- Rain chances return Sunday night through Monday into early
  Tuesday. Greatest chances (~40 to 70 percent chance) during
  the day on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Snow showers continue to move through the area while gusty
northwest winds continue. This is all in line with previous
forecast, so little changes are needed.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Current surface analysis shows high pressure stretching from
north central Montana southeastward towards the central plains,
while low remains over Ontario. Our area remains in the pressure
gradient between the two, thus the continued gusty northwest
winds. Broad upper low remains centered over eastern Ontario,
bringing broad cyclonic flow to our area and continued isolated
to scattered light snow showers.

For today, cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the area as
upper low gradually meanders off to the east, resulting in
continued isolated to scattered snow showers through the day.
Lasted high-res guidance continues to be in agreement with this,
thus have just gone with broad-brushed chances in the morning
and afternoon over the area. Aforementioned tightened pressure
gradient remains over the area, but a look at forecast soundings
shows a little less wind to mix down than had been shown the
past couple of days. Therefore, expect a windy day but speeds
should remain below wind advisory criteria. A few snow showers
may linger into the evening hours tonight, but clearing will
develop from southwest to northeast with winds gradually easing
up.

Quiet weather Saturday into the daytime hours on Sunday as ridge
to the west pushes over, which will also result in a pleasant
warming trend.

A compact Pacific low busts down the ridge and pushes into our
area late Sunday into Monday. This will bring increasing chances
for rain. Greatest chances (about 40-70 percent chance) come
during the day on Monday, with likely rain over most locations.
This is not expected to be heavy, with latest NBM guidance
showing about a 30 to 50 percent chance of seeing a tenth of an
inch or more, with chances for a quarter inch remaining under 25
percent over the area.

A little rain may linger into Tuesday morning, with drier
weather returning through Wednesday afternoon. Guidance then
indicates the possibility of returning to an unsettled pattern
to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected this morning, possibly into
this afternoon. Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue
through today, possibly into early this evening. Brief periods
of visibility reduction can be expected with these snow showers.
Northwest winds gusting to 35 kts expected today, gradually
diminishing this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS