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000
FXUS64 KBMX 182033
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS FROM
TOTALLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. YOUR TYPICALLY CALM BEHIND THE
MCS.

THE TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BOUNDARY AND CAN WE
GET THE REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIGHT NOW THE
RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING IN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WATCHING THE MOISTURE VIA IR SLIDING AROUND THE APEX. EXPECTED THE
MOISTURE TO BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT LIKE THE
SREF...NAM...GFS THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER MCS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL WITH MCS AND DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP THEN WE WOULD LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. WORST SCENARIO WOULD BE IF
WE WIND UP GETTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
THEN THE MCS MOVES THROUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT.

CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN...BUT INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S. BEYOND MONDAY DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR OR ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER OF EVEN MORE CONCERN IS
SFC BOUNDARY FROM KJFX-KBHM-KMGM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF STATE...AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO CUMULUS
INITIATION/PRECIP. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY AND ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF STATE.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND STRATUS
FORMATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 18Z...UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  STEFKOVICH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  83  66  90  67 /  70  60  20  10  10
ANNISTON    65  83  65  89  67 /  70  70  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  66  89  67 /  50  30  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  66  89  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      66  85  66  89  67 /  30  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  84  65  88  68 /  40  50  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  66  91  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
TROY        65  87  66  91  66 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$