National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 191820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE WELCOMED
AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN
ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE RAINFALL IS NOT
NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE HWO.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STEFKOVICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  90  64  89 /  50  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  66  89  66  89 /  60  30  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  67  90  68  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  67  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      87  67  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      86  66  88  66  88 /  50  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  90  67  91  66  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
TROY        89  67  89  64  89 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
