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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190127
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
827 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO THE WEST OF MGM AND
TOI... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT FROM ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT ANB... WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
REGARDING MVFR VERSUS IFR CIGS... AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR
MOST SITES... WITH IFR INCLUDED ONLY AT EET BECAUSE IT TENDS TO GO
LOWER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... AND ANB DUE TO PLENTIFUL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY MORNING.

77/GLEASON


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$