National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBMX 190617
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
117 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

A surface low is currently moving towards the Ohio Valley and
dragging a cold front across the Lower MS River Valley. Convection
along the southern sections of the front is already beginning to
to dissipate and will continue to do so as it moves into even more
of an unfavorable environment dominated by the Gulf ridge and
lacking in deep moisture. Showers and a few storms may clip the
northern tier of Alabama through sunrise, but severe weather is
not expected. Yes there may be some gusty winds and lightning, but
most of the activity should remain under control.

Patchy fog appears likely this morning, especially in the south.
Will monitor trends to see if a Dense Fog Advisory is needed. The
frontal boundary will be near the I-20 corridor by the afternoon.
As temperatures warm into the lower to mid 80s, some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop. Despite MUCAPE ranging from
2000-3000 J/kg along the surface boundary, thunderstorm growth is
expected to struggle through the dry air, limiting coverage,
intensity, and longevity, but gusty thunderstorm winds will be
possible in a few instances.

Scattered showers and storms will linger into the evening hours
due to the presence of a warm and unstable air mass south of the
cold front, but dissipate in coverage after Midnight. There could
be some light rain in the north, but very little measurable rain
is expected. A lull in the rain late Friday night through Saturday
morning as the air mass stabilizes north of the cold front. An
elevated warm front will bring scattered showers and a few
elevated storms to central Alabama Saturday afternoon.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024

A more potent upper level impulse will eject from Texas Saturday
night. This impulse will bring widespread showers to Central
Alabama on Sunday. Forecast soundings show very stable low levels
with minimal upper level instability on Sunday, and removed any
mention of thunderstorms. The showers should exit east Alabama
late Sunday afternoon with clearing and colder air moving into the
area Sunday night. Less humid and cooler Monday and Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

Showers will be around central Alabama overnight, but chances
remain too low to include at terminals through sunrise.  The
terminals start off VFR with winds becoming light. Another bout
of MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop after 8/9z along with some
patchy fog. Even though there is some dry air aloft, the near
surface conditions are nearly saturated overnight. The ceilings
slowly rise and by 17/18z, VFR becomes established again. PROB30
was placed at all northern terminals for afternoon convection with
winds becoming west southwest 5-10kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move into northwest Alabama Friday afternoon.
Scattered storms will develop along and ahead of the front. Min RH
values this afternoon will be 60-70% north of I-20 and 50-60%
south of I-20. 20 ft winds will be from the southwest 4-6 mph. Min
RH values Saturday afternoon will be 45-70%. 20 ft winds will be
from the southwest 4-6 mph. A wet pattern will continue through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  57  75  47 /  50  20  10  40
Anniston    83  59  76  51 /  40  30  20  40
Birmingham  83  59  74  51 /  40  30  20  50
Tuscaloosa  84  60  73  50 /  40  20  30  60
Calera      82  60  75  51 /  40  30  20  50
Auburn      84  65  81  57 /  20  20  30  30
Montgomery  86  64  81  57 /  20  20  30  30
Troy        87  64  84  59 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16