000
FXUS64 KBMX 240749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
249 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.

PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THINKING. DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

08


&&

.CLIMATE...

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.

RECORDSFORECAST

BIRMINGHAM4548

TUSCALOOSA5149

MONTGOMERY5152

ANNISTON4747

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  45  78  49  82 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    75  48  80  51  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  49  81  54  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  81  50  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      79  51  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      79  52  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  83  52  84  56  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        83  50  83  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$