000
FXUS64 KBMX 160316 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1016 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD EXPECTING A
TAD WARMER FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL AIDE IN INCREASING MOISTURE A LITTLE AND
BRING SOME STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATING MILDER OVERALL READINGS...WE ARE
COOLING A BIT QUICKER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 10-15Z WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAFS VFR AT THIS TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS WITH MORE
OF A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
STATE...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODELS THE PAST DAY OR TWO
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GOES BEFORE STALLING. DUE TO THE
FLAT PATTERN ALOFT...I PREFER A SLOWER EURO/NAM SOLUTION WHICH
WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS BEING LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCER WITH MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  87  69  84  70 /   0  20  40  70  50
ANNISTON    65  86  70  84  72 /   0  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  88  72  86  74 /   0  20  30  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  72  88  73 /   0  20  30  70  40
CALERA      67  88  71  86  73 /   0  20  30  60  40
AUBURN      67  86  71  86  71 /   0  30  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  70  91  72  89  74 /   0  20  20  40  20
TROY        68  90  71  89  73 /   0  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/05/88