000
FXUS64 KBMX 150826
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. MANY PLACES ACROSS THE HEARTLAND BROKE THE CENTURY MARK
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 100S. FURTHER SOUTH...THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE
IS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP TONIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO DROP TOO MUCH DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD START TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS IS LACKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MINIMUM IN PW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A LARGE AREA OF PW VALUES
BELOW 1 INCH. THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE FEATURE TO LIFT PARCELS.
ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
A BIT WEAKER. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL
WEAKEN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE LIFTING AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HAVE ONLY CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OF FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE MODELS
NOW INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE JOINED IN AS WELL. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAKES FOR A
RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE
80S UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE NO
CAP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM OR TWO ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE NOW SOMETIME MID-WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS PICKUP AGAIN AFTER 15Z. MAY SEE
SOME MORE IN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

NOTE: THERE IS A VISIBILITY ISSUE WITH KEET THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW...THERE IS ZERO RESTRICTIONS. HAVE NOTICED
SOME CHANGE WITH IMPROVED VIS SINCE THE SUN WENT DOWN...BUT THERE
STILL IS NO HAZE OR FOG AT KEET AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE AMD
LTD TO CLD...WIND AND WX THROUGH 0515/18Z. SHOULD BE RESOLVED BY
THAT TIME AS THE EQUIPMENT IS STILL WORKING.

NOTE: KANB HAS BEEN IN AND OUT WITH REPORTING OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO DIAL IN BUT NOT GETTING IN RELIABLY...SO
ADDED /AMD NOT SKED/ TO THIS TAF. APPEARS THAT IT IS A
COMMUNICATION ISSUE AND WILL HOPEFULLY BE RESOLVED ASAP.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  58  82  57  82 /   0  10  20  20  20
ANNISTON    85  61  83  60  82 /   0   0  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  85  63  83  64  82 /   0  10  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  86  62  84  64  83 /   0  10  10  10  20
CALERA      84  61  82  61  82 /   0  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      85  63  82  63  83 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  88  62  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  10  20
TROY        85  59  83  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$