000
FXUS64 KBMX 181512
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...INSTABILITY IS STILL GOING TO BE QUITE HIGH AND
THEREFORE THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. MODIFYING
THE 12Z KBMX SOUNDING FOR FORECAST CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE ON WHEN AND WHERE
THEY MAY HAPPEN IS LOW AND THE STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TYPICALLY WHEN YOU HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT YOU DO
NOT SEE A REPEAT THAT QUICKLY. HOWEVER TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH
DIFFERENT AS THE RAIN OVERNIGHT WAS ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAX
ROTATING THROUGH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALOFT. THIS COLD FRONT
IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND STILL WEST OF AN UOX AND
JAN LINE IN MS. UNTIL THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH WE WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH. LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGH 15Z TO BE BETWEEN TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...LOOK FOR
AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE AS WE GET THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN
ADDITION TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT. HIGHEST TIMING CONFIDENCE
IS ACTUALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE HEATING WILL INCREASE CHANCES
AFTER 18Z. AREAS NORTH WILL LIKELY SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTER BUT TIMING OF THESE REMAIN TRICKY
AND WENT WITH VCTS FOR THE TIME BEING. AFTER 00Z NORTH AND 3Z
SOUTH...TAFS SHOULD SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR. WENT A TOUCH SLOWER THAN MODELS IN CLEARING TRENDS
OVERNIGHT. DRIER DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  63  88  63  89 /  90  30  10  10  10
ANNISTON    84  65  89  65  89 /  90  30  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  84  67  89  68  91 /  90  30  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  87  68  91  65  92 /  90  30  10  10  10
CALERA      85  68  89  67  90 /  90  40  10  10  10
AUBURN      85  68  89  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  30
MONTGOMERY  89  70  92  68  91 /  90  60  20  20  30
TROY        88  70  90  68  90 /  70  60  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$