000
FXUS64 KBMX 192015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA THROUGH
7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE HWO AS WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS THAT THE STORMS
ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER THAT...THERE
IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY
DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE
ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  90  64  88  68 /  70  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    66  88  66  89  66 /  70  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  90  68  90  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  92  65  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      67  89  67  90  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      66  88  66  88  65 /  50  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  91  66  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        67  89  64  91  67 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.

&&

$$