Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FGUS74 KBMX 051917
ESFBMX
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063-
065-073-075-081-085-087-091-093-101-105>127-133-061200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT OF THE BAJA MEXICO REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
ALONG ITS PATH AND PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE SOME 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME OF THE RAIN RATES MAY
BECOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE.

DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL...MANY OF THE LOCAL CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PAST WEEK. WITH A FEW DAYS OF
DRYING...MANY HAVE FALLEN BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL FLOW. THEREFORE...2 TO 4 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
TIME FRAME WILL PRODUCE GOOD RISES ON THESE WATERWAYS AND SOME
COULD REACH BANKFULL OR OVERFLOW. MAIN-STEM RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE AND SOME MAY REACH STAGES OF MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE...THE LOWER WARRIOR...AND SUCARNOOCHEE RIVERS.

DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...
AND STORM STRENGTH...RAINFALL RATES MAY BECOME EXCESSIVE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL MAY END UP PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

STAY TUNED TO FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SCENARIO. ALSO CHECK THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR THE FORECASTED
RIVER STAGES.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...GO TO:

         HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BMX

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGE

$$



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