Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 300943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY OVER UTAH
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ON MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DRAG SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST ONE SHOULD FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS. CAPES SHOULD
HOLD LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE. STILL A
MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH A 35-55 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE
IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A COOLER
AIRMASS AND NORTHEASTERLY...THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MAYBE
WEAK DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLIES BY AFTERNOON
...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
FAIRLY DECENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F THROUGH THE PERIODS. AGAIN THERE IS SOME CAPE AROUND...
NOTHING GREAT. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS ON THE CROSS SECTIONS DO
KEEP A PRETTY DECENT STABLE LAYER OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALL
FOUR PERIODS. WILL GO WITH 20-50%S POPS FOR THE PLAIN`S LATE DAY
PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAY ALSO
LET SOME MINOR POPS GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
PERIODS...06-18Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C WARMER THAN
THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS
KEEP A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MIGRATE IT EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF A
WEAKER...THEN OF LATE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND IS MORE DUE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IT IS PRETTY DRY FOR THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MAINLY
23Z-04Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS
DUE TO HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS TODAY. THREAT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION TEMPO GUSTY WINDS IN THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR FAIRLY NORMAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.