Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231552
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

PRECIPITATION AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN
COLORADO ON THE FRONT END OF THE INCOMING TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO BY THE EARLY EVENING. OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND LARGER
HAIL DUE TO THE INCREASED CAPE VALUES AND QG ASCENT. DO NOT SEE A
REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A RATHER STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
THRU TONIGHT WITH COLORADO BEING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THRU THIS EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS.  THUS SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THE MTNS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN HOURS.  OVER NERN CO LOW
LVL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT SOME THRU THE DAY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
NERN PLAINS.  CAPES WILL RANGE FM 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS VALES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG.
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE
ACROSS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DVLP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND THEN MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS FM
LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RATHER STG MID LVL
FLOW A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. OVER THE
FAR NERN PLAINS WHERE CAPES WILL BE BETTER SOME MARGINAL LARGE
HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE MTNS PRECIP
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  OVER NERN CO
PCPN CHANCES SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
THEN BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY.
ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND VIA THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. THE BEST CHC
WL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH CO FM THE NORTHWEST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
IT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA MONDAY
AFTN/EVNG WITH THE TROUGH ITSELF STILL OVER SRN ID/NRN UT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE SLOWER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS
WHICH MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...THE NAM DRIVES A CLOSED
CIRCULATION INTO NORTHERN CA. THE ECMWF IS THE COMPROMISE
MDL...IT CLOSES THE UPPER LOW BUT STILL SHIFTS IT EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO...BUT SLOWER...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WL FOLLOW THIS
PLAN FOR NOW AT BUMP THE POPS UPWARD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF
DRIER AND WARMER WITH A RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 21Z WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL 01Z. EXPECT
LIGHT TO BRIEF MODERATE RAINSHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTING.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM WIND AND LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGH THE
TEMPO PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRAINAGE RETURNING BY 7Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN


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