Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260925
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAY SEE SOME SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THRU ABOUT 14Z HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND
15Z WITH LIGHT ELY WINDS. BY EARLY THIS AFTN MAY SEE A WK DENVER
CYCLONE DVLP WITH VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. BY
EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME DRAINAGE AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK



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