Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260943
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
343 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The most significant change today is the amount of drying that is
moved into the Western 2/3 of Colorado. Water vapor imagery shows
this nicely and Integrated Precipitable Water trends from GPS
concurs as GJT only showing about a 1/3 of inch of PW. The
moderate Westerly flow aloft will continue to nudge the deeper
moisture into far Eastern Colorado. Also don`t see any upper level
disturbances that will move across the state through this evening
as QG fields are rather neutral.

Temperatures will be warmer today as 700mb temperatures expected
to climb to around +15c which will result in surface temperatures
4-6 degrees warmer than Saturday. For storm development
today...looks too dry in most mountain locations....especially
West of the Divide and North of Interstate 70. As for the
Northeast plains...models keep surface dewpoints up in the 50s
across the plains under increasing Southeast flow but expect some
of this to mix out into the lower 40s...especially over the Urban
corridor. Forecast soundings mainly inverted V so main threat will
be gusty winds. Deeper moisture out on the plains will result in
stronger storms as surface based capes ranging from
1000-1800j/kg and decent shear profile. Main threats would be
Large Hail up to 1 inch in diameter and damaging winds.

Expect initial storms to develop over the higher terrain of the
Palmer Divide and CYS ridge with surface convergence in these
locales and then move onto the plains. Overall coverage will be
rather isolated through this evening due to the dry mid/upper
levels and lack of any upper support noted.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Weakening of the upper level ridge will bring multiple
disturbances across Colorado keeping storms and lower temperatures
in the extended.

For Monday the upper level ridge will start to degrade over the
southwest bringing flow aloft more NW. A cold front will move
onto the NE plains by 00z Tuesday bringing increased moisture and
cooler temperatures. This front will move against the foothills
and provide the trigger to help set off afternoon and evening
convection on the plains. CAPE values will be 1500-2000 j/kg with
decent mid level shear values in the 40s. Storms could fire off
along the boundary through the afternoon before the easterly flow
moves into the foothills and continues convection over the higher
terrain into the evening hours. The main threats will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and isolated hail up to one inch in
diameter...mostly over the eastern plains. Subsidence behind the
front will help to stabilize the atm early Tuesday before another
round of storms Tuesday afternoon. These will mainly be over the
higher terrain with a few that could make their way off the
foothills during afternoon hours bringing rain, gusty winds and
small hail. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will hover around
seasonal normals with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For Wednesday through Friday the upper level ridge continues to
move south bringing increased NW flow aloft over the state. This
will deliver a round of disturbances on Wednesday and Friday. For
Wednesday a shortwave will clip the NE corner of the state. A
deep lee surface low will keep the brunt of the moisture over NE
and KS with some storms possibly making their way onto NE corner
counties with heavy rain and winds early wednesday. Diurnal
afternoon storms will be possible for Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

On Friday morning another disturbance will move over the state
bringing cooler temperatures and increasing moisture. Models are
showing more of a stratiform rain set-up with increasing
stability. Highs on Friday will be on the lower to mid 80s. For
Saturday and Sunday more rain is in store...however models diverge
slightly on timing and placement of upper level features so will
have to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Southerly drainage winds will shift more Southeast by late morning
and continue through the afternoon. Drier airmass today so any
storms that develop will be isolated and mainly South and East of
the terminals. With the isolate coverage expected will remove
mention of TS from kden/kapa terminals. Certainly some outflow
and gusty winds possible with storms.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin



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