Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 312001
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
201 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH MODEST QG ASCENT NOTED IN SHORT RANGE MODELS. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CYS RADAR VAD WINDS SHOWING 55KT AT 5000FT AGL
SO WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THIS STRONG FLOW
OFF THE DECK. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
SWEEP IN BEHIND TROF AXIS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

OVERALL TREND IN THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. MDLS MAINTAIN A
GOOD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO BOTH DAYS...WITH THE AMS MUCH
DRIER OVER THE CWFA. NOT THUNDERSTORM EITHER DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THE TREND FOR
COOLER AND WETTER WILL KICK IN BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FM WLY TO SWLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN THE MID LEVELS...FLOW ALOFT WILL
START TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE EVEN
COOLER THAN THOSE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. IN ANY
EVENT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHC OR SLGT
CHC OF TSTMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE EVOLVING AND STRONGER CONVECTION HAS STAYED
NORTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE STORMS IN WELD COUNTY WHICH
WILL GET TO KDEN BETWEEN 2030-21Z AS WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
OVER WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY WHICH COULD ALSO EFFECT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 21-23Z. WILL MONITOR IN CASE TS IS NEEDED BACK IN THE TAF.
FOR NOW STORM EFFECTS COVERED FOR WINDS IN TEMPO GROUP. GOOD
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. NO STORMS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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