Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 292023
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

FRONT RANGE MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD BE PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE STRUCTURE
MAY STAY THERE FOR A WHILE. SPEEDS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT
GREAT...30-40 MPH IN EXPOSED FOOTHILLS SPOTS AND ONLY AROUND 50
ABOVE TIMBERLINE. PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON
THIS. SOME INCREASE IN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS FROM THE WAVE THROUGH EVENING...THEN THIS TOO
SHOULD FADE. NOT ENOUGH CLOUD TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MUCH...I
LOWERED TONIGHTS LOWS A LITTLE MORE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHICH HAVE BEEN DROPPING VERY WELL THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS.

WEAK FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO
COOL HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AND BRING LESS DRY AIR ONTO
THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER DUE TO UPSLOPE FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW BRINGING COOLER AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO NORMALS FOR FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE EAST WILL PREVENT ANY LEE
TROUGHING AND ALLOW FOR INCREASED WINDS FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS.

FOR SATURDAY THE WARM AIR MASS WILL FINALLY MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
PUSHING OUT THE COOLER AIR TO THE EAST AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. STRONG LEE TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER
THE EAST WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SEEING INCREASED
CLOUDS DUE TO INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY. THE ENERGY IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH BUT A TRAILING SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING TO NEGATIVE 6 TO 7 OVER THE PLAINS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURGE OF COOL AIR THE PLAINS COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT
STILL KEPT MODEST IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE NEXT
FEW MODELS RUNS.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL NW
FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...THEN GO BACK TO NORMAL S/W DRAINAGE WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH PARK BUT CONDITIONS LOOK
MARGINAL. HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER ON THE PLAINS AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS ON THURSDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND DRY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
FIRE WEATHER...GIMMESTAD



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