Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 262138
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TONIGHTS INCOMING TROUGH DOES NOT SEEM TO BE BRINGING VERY MUCH
MOISTURE WITH IT. RADAR AT KGJX IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE...SO THROUGH THE EVENING
THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED INCREASE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MINIMAL WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO FAR...BUT IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE...SO WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DRIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE A LITTLE HEAVY-HANDED.

THE OTHER ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST IS THE MODEST COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED BY THE
TERRAIN. AFEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
NORTHWEST WIND ON THE PLAINS AND SOME WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT THESE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 30S AROUND
DENVER AND IN FOOTHILLS DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME PLACES MAY ESCAPE BUT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE...SO I HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. COLD START TO THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE WARMING ON
TUESDAY...THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER. COULD BE SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT RANGE WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY AFTER A LITTLE SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF
US WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD AND DRY PERIOD...SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT START TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT TROUGH FOR THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...WITH A LEADING PART OF THE WAVE PASSING NORTH OF US IN
MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE GFS...AND THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE AMONG THE FASTER
MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES...SO THE IMPACT MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW A
LITTLE COOLING AND LOW MOUNTAIN POPS FOR SUNDAY ARE SUFFICIENT...
COULD STILL TURN OUT TO BE A NICE WARM DAY IF THE SYSTEM IS A
LITTLE SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL...EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3
AM...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ038>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...DANKERS



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