Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 302121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
CONVERGENCE LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS REMAINED CAPPED SO FAR. DEW POINTS IN
MOUNTAIN STATIONS HAVE DROPPED WAY OFF...SO SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY ON THE
PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE. ON
FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTHWARD OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...CAUSING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SLOW
MOVING. MODEL QPF FIELDS SHOW THE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE
PLAINS CAPPED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES THAT WERE RECORDED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE PLUME WILL
DETERMINE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE DOMINATE OVER
THE REGION EXTENDING NW WELL INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A 700 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WILL HELP WITH KEEPING
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT REGULATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL BRING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HINDER HEATING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NW WITH THE MOISTURE
AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY SOUTH OF I-70. THE
EC AND GFS DIFFER ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER NE
COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT
THE LATER MODELS DO WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE BEFORE RAISING
POPS ON THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT IS
PROJECTING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE PLAINS BUT
LIKE FOR MONDAY WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW LATER MODELS HANDLE THIS
FEATURE. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

A MATURE DENVER CYCLONE IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
DENVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE LINE WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IS LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER AREA.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE CONVECTION MAY WORK ITS WAY BACK
TO KDEN AND KAPA LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAS DRIED OUT AND SHOULD REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
WILL TURN BACK TO DRAINAGE SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER. MODEL QPF
FIELDS KEEP ALL THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. KBJC WOULD BE THE AIRPORT MOST
LIKELLY TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS


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