Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 252254
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOUNTAIN WAVE NEVER BECAME VERY SHARP...THERE WAS SOME
AMPLIFICATION THAT PUSHED HIGH WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BUT IT
STRUGGLED TO GET TO THE PLAINS. THE LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENT HAS
JUST PEAKED AND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH A WEAKENING
INVERSION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH WINDS IN
THE BOULDER COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND SOME OTHER SPOTS ARE CLOSE...AND
THESE COULD STILL COME UP A BIT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS
ON THE PLAINS IS QUITE LOW NOW. EVEN IF THE SPEEDS INCREASE
AGAIN...THEY SHOULD NOT GET THAT STRONG. SO WE WILL DROP THE
WARNING FOR THE PLAINS ZONES AND CONTINUE IT IN THE FOOTHILLS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LOOKING GOOD. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST SNOW
HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS
THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW HAS BEEN CARRIED DOWNWIND. THESE AREAS ARE UP
TO ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY...SO I WILL RAISE THE STORM
TOTAL ESTIMATE FOR THE FRONT RANGE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES. SNOW SHOULD
BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE
SNOWING. I DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT
AS MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST LOWS...HOWEVER
WITH THE SNOW...CLOUD COVER...AND DECENT WARM ADVECTION THEY WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY RISE IN THE
WINDIER AREAS.

LOOKING NORTHWARD...THERE IS A RIBBON OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SE WYOMING AND IT WILL
WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AS IT DROPS PAST US TONIGHT. DESPITE A
GENERAL TREND TO LIFT THE JET SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS INSIST
THAT A LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER BAND TO
SHIFT WESTWARD FOR A WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE HAPPENING IN WYOMING. THIS WAS ALREADY IN OUR FORECAST WITH
SHOWERS BACKING INTO DENVER OR CLOSE TO IT LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE
ABOUT THE TIMING...THE SHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
NOW BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE IS JUST COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. SO THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DETAILS
BUT A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO
DENVER LOOKS ALRIGHT. SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW BUT COULD ACCUMULATE AN
INCH OR TWO WHERE THE BAND PERSISTS...MOST LIKELY EAST OF DENVER.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME REDUCTION IN THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ALL THE WEATHER GOES AWAY AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHEAST. COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE PASSING IN THE MORNING. ALSO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HANGING ON BUT IN A DRYING STABILIZING AIRMASS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY THURSDAY...STRONG NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FAR NE PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY. NO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE PLAINS WILL SEE INCREASED TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLE LOWER 70S IN SOME AREAS. FOR WINDS
SPEEDS EVEN WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH COMPONENT ALONG REACHING INTO THE MID 40S
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AS COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL INCREASE
TO 60 KTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WAVE CLOUD TO FORM SO PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY
SKIES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID IN GETTING THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR FRIDAY. THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR FRIDAY IS 72 SET BACK IN 1901 SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS DEVELOP FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD.

FOR SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE
ISOLATED TO THE UPPER LEVELS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. INCREASED
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

ON SUNDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COOLER AIR DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NOT
SHOWING MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW WITH JUST SOME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MORE SW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE EXPECTED SO
WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THAT REGION AS WELL.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE PACIFIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
MOVE NW. COMPONENT ALONG WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP ARE FORECASTED TO
BE 50 TO 55 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET MUCH STRONGER...AND WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z...ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE DENVER AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AND KDEN APPROACHES SHOULD BE VISUAL BY
18Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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