Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 101529 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
921 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WARM START TO THE MORNING AND
SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY. MORNING SOUNDING WAS
DRIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE LOWER POPS ON THE
PLAINS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

WILL SEE A PUSH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THIS WILL BRING COOLER
AIR AND INCREASE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY
STILL LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
THRU THIS AFTN INTO NRN CO WITH THE MID FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS HAVE DECREASED AROUND 25%
FROM YESTERDAY WHILE OVER WRN CO THEY ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
MEANWHILE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD MID LVL
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

IN THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
AFTN.  OVER NERN CO AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH THE MID LVL WARMING
THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY BORDER. THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS EXCEPT NR THE WY
BORDER WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS.  WITH LESS
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN AND WK SHEAR PROFILE THREAT OF SVR WX LOOKS
LOW.

AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES SO AFTN
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NERN CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER JUST SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN THE CENTER MIGRATES WESTWARD
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY
12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINATELY
UPSLOPE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS PROGGED INTO THE CWA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE IS FOR
FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY PROGGED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON ALL THE MODELS FOR
ALL THE PLAINS AND LOWER FOOTHILLS ARE PROGGED OVER 1.00 INCH
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50 TO 65 F RANGE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS ALL FOUR
PERIODS. PRETTY DECENT CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SOME AREAS OF THE PLAINS HAVE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA LATE DAY FRIDAY AND LATE DAY SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BUT ALL THE MODELS WEIGHT IN WITH
SOMETHING. WILL GO WITH 30-50% POPS FRIDAY LATE AND SATURDAY LATE.
WILL EVEN KEEP SOME GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST FOR THE
06-12Z PERIODS. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS AND MORE MOISTURE.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTER STAYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT MOVES FURTHER WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ITS TAIL END GETTING
INTO THE CWA PERHAPS. LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FROM 22Z TO 03Z.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TODAY...SO EXPECT WEAKER STORMS. LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AROUND 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIND DIRECTION TO VARY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER


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