Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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752
FXUS65 KBOU 022205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
LEFT ON PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND THESE WILL BE ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY AND FLOW
TURNS EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHWEST. WINDS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO
DECREASE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS SO WINTER STORM WARNING THERE WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. STILL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE WILL
BE OVERNIGHT AS THIS STORM HAS BEEN SLOWER AND MATURE WITH
CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. BUT CLOUDS ARE ALREADY THINNING
SO STILL LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS DIMINISH ON THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD HELP MINIMIZE
FOG THREAT. FORT COLLINS/LOVELAND/GREELEY AREAS COULD STILL SEE
SOME FOG WHERE NEARLY CALM WINDS AND MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. ONLY AN INCH
OR SO EXPECTED ON THE HIGHER SLOPES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO
READINGS. COLDEST TEMPS IN LOW LYING AREAS AND VALLEYS THAT CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATE AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DESPITE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...BUT INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE HIGHER SLOPES
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MEAN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE VERY MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE
TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER. PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY EVENING...EACH OF THE MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS AND NAM
MOVE AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE STATE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS TEND TOWARDS A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER.
WILL GO WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS THAT
PRODUCE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY AND THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
STATE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
STATE. FOR NOW...THE MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGER BUT THESE WILL BE DEPARTING KDEN
AND KAPA 23Z-00Z AS THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FINALLY ESTABLISHES
ITSELF. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT BUT ILS LANDING
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER TIL AROUND 03Z. OTHERWISE GRADUAL CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND TURNING SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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