Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 251515
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
915 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

With the remaining stratus layer and higher dewpoints over
Washington, Lincoln, Morgan and eastern Adams and Arapahoe
counties, and with several recent runs of hi-res models showing
convection over the aforementioned area, have gone ahead and added
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Otherwise, ongoing forecast still looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper level low off the California coast will move over southern
California today. The low will continue to move eastward and be
over Arizona tonight. Ahead of this, a southwest flow aloft will
continue over Colorado. A weak ridge will move across the state
today. This will bring subsidence and drier air. Temperatures will
be warmer today with highs in the 70s across northeast Colorado.
There will be just a slight chance for thunderstorms over far
northern Colorado today. Best chance for convection will be north
of the state. A front will push into the area tonight. This will
help to replenish low level moisture. Can`t rule out a stray storm
or two tonight over the eastern plains, so will have low pops in
the forecast for this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Overall trend on track with the next system moving out of the
southwest and across Colorado Thursday into Friday. On Thursday
the system is progged to move from north central AZ at 12z Thu and
into south central CO by 12z Friday, Timing is a little slower
which may increase the potential for strong/severe tstms over the
northeast plains in the aftn, NAM12 forecast soundings show
healthy amounts of CAPE...anywhere fm 1000-2000 j/kg. The best
chance would appear to be over east central CO...south of
interstate 76. Moderate mid and upper level QG ascent is now
progged to move across the cwa in the aftn.  Good directional
shear for tstms to produce large hail...damaging winds and a
tornado or two. The timing of this trough is a little slower which
keeps the region under the warm and more unstable regime. The
system is progged to move into Nebraska and Kansas with more of a
west/northwesterly flow over the area with increasing downward qg
dvlpg over the area by Friday aftn. Good coverage for pcpn on
Friday with less tstm coverage. The trend for the weekend into
early next week still looks okay. Warmer and a little drier...with
a persistent chance of thunderstorms each aftn/evng...with highs
closer to normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Weak high pressure will move across the area today. This will
bring drier conditions. Mid and upper level clouds will increase
this afternoon and evening. If any storms form, they are expected
to stay well north of the Denver area. Winds will be tricky today.
General wind pattern suggests westerly winds, though most models
are showing an anticyclone forming and easterly winds over the
Denver area. Thus confidence in the wind forecast for today is
low. A cold front will push into the area tonight bringing
northeast winds behind it.


&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Meier



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