Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The large upper level ridge centered to our south will keep very
dry and warm conditions in place. The passing short wave over the
Northern Rockies will act to increase mid level westerly flow this
morning, with breezy conditions developing over the mountains and
northern border area. Temperatures will be about 3-4 degrees
warmer than yesterday as we see a bit more warm advection and
stronger downslope component. Highs expected to reach or exceed
80F over most of the plains (record for Denver is 84F set in
2003 but should be a degree or two shy). Fire danger will
increase...see fire weather section below.

For tonight, winds will decrease quickly with the loss of daytime
heating and mixing. A few wave clouds expected today and then
possibly a bit thicker tonight with the approach of upper level
moisture plume from the west. That along with light drainage winds
would act to keep temperatures quite mild along the Front Range

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Most of the forecast period will be dry and unseasonably warm as
upper ridging dominates the weather pattern across the western
half of the United States. The dry pattern will be punctuated by
one upper level disturbance crossing over the state Tuesday and
another one late in the day Friday. Tuesday`s weather system is
being handled similarly by the GFS and ECMWF, so confidence that
this shot of precipitation will develop is boosted. Temperatures
at 700 mb are forecast to remain in the +2c to +5c range, so snow
levels will be quite high...above 10,000 the system
moves across. Precipitation amounts are also forecast to be fairly
light, so only an inch or two of snow will be possible over the
high elevations. Cloudiness associated with the passing
disturbance will help keep temperatures coolest on Tuesday and
Wednesday, but still in the low 70s on the plains. Warmer
temperatures and dry weather are expected Thursday and Friday as
ridging re-develops over Colorado, downstream from a developing
trough over the west coast. The GFS and ECMWF solutions diverge
after Thursday, so confidence in the next weather disturbance
moving over the state next weekend is low at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will persist. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots
are expected to turn more west/northwest 18Z-20Z depending on how
low level mix out. Similar to yesterday, there may be channels of
westerlies with a few gusts into the 20-25 knot range that affect
the Front Range airports including KDEN 19Z-00Z.


Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Fire danger will increase today due to a continuation of very dry
conditions but a slight increase in winds. At this time, winds are
expected to become just strong enough to bring Red Flag
conditions by late morning/early afternoon across the high
mountain valleys, portions of the Northern Front Range Foothills
(mainly higher elevations of Boulder county into Larimer county),
and then eastward onto the adjacent plains right next to the
Wyoming border. Elsewhere, winds will remain under criteria.
Conditions should quickly improve by sunset.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
evening for COZ211-213>215.



SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.