Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 040246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
846 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BREAKING APART AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS...SKIPPING OVER DENVER. UPDATED FORECAST
TO REMOVE POPS FOR DENVER AND LOWER A BIT IN MOST PLACES. STILL
SOME SLIM CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES
OF OUR AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AT
THIS HOUR WITH QG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR AREA. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE THE TROUGH AXIS PASS BY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER HAS HELD BACK THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT OF THINGS THUS
FAR SO HAVE LOWERED THE GOING POPS A BIT TO COVER THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

TUESDAY WILL SEE DRYING AND SUBSIDING AIR OVER MOST OF THE CWA
EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
POPS/QPF FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM THE CORNER. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXCEED THOSE OF TODAY BY A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO EXPECTING MORE WIND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AS MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED THE
REGION WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NE CORNER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND WINDS POSSIBLE BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
WILL CLEAR OUT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
SHIFT WESTWARD CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING FLOW MORE ZONAL FROM THE WEST AND DRY OUT
NE COLORADO. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING.
WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOME STORMS COULD MOVE OVER
THE PLAINS SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES WILL BE LOW WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE BUT DCAPES ARE HIGH
WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SO AT THIS POINT MAIN THREATS LOOK TO
BE BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER CA WILL START TO MOVE ENE HELPING TO PUSH THE RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER TX BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE STATE FROM THE SSW INCREASING CONVECTION
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW WITH MAIN THREATS STILL BEING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PLACES ITSELF BACK OVER TX RE-INVITING THE TYPICAL MONSOON
PATTERN BACK TO THE REGION. PW VALUES WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO AN
INCH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES.
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER NE COLORADO WITH HEAVY RAIN...WINDS AND POSSIBLE
SMALL HAIL. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE HOVERING AROUND NORMAL WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BOTH MODELS
SHOW SOME DRYING OUT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST BUT WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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