Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 050949
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
349 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AXIS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN COLORADO
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER ERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THIN SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AT THE
PRESENT TIME MARKS THE ADVANCE OF WARMER AIR FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A STRONG MID-MAY SUN TO
DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPS
TODAY MAY POSSIBLY BE THE WARMEST THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12-
15 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. NORMAL HIGH FOR DENVER TODAY IS
67.

IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...SIMILAR HEATING THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN A FEW
GUSTY T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT W-SWLY TRANSPORT WINDS COULD
STEER ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS OVER NEARBY VALLEY FLOOR AND
FOOTHILL AREAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OVERALL SFC WINDS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE ONCE THE GUSTY S-SELY GRADIENT WINDS ON THE PLAINS
SUBSIDE NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...SPOTTY HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW UP FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS WARM SWLY
FLOW AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE MOST AREAS A VERY MILD
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED. HOWEVER
MODELS SHOW A FRONT CREEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE
MID 40 TO LOWER 50S. TO THE SOUTH OF IT WILL BE DRY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2500 JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH A STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. STRONG SHEAR AND GOOD
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT. EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
STATE AND EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN AFTER THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOST
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGHINESS OVER/NEAR WYOMING. THE LOW WEAKENS...SO
CONVECTION WILL BE LESS. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COOL EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. S-SELY SFC WINDS OF 6-15KT EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE STRONGER WINDS BEING AT KDEN AND KAPA...SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY AROUND 15Z AS WINDS TURN TO AN E-SELY DIRECTION. SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. BY NIGHTFALL...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A
S-SWLY DIRECTION AT SPEEDS UNDER 12KTS. ALTHOUGH KDEN COULD SEE
A SELY WIND OF 15-20KTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER


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