Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 232150
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT
STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PER PLATTEVILLE PROFILER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS
TIME...BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BEEN THE BIG HEADACHE IN
THE DENVER AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS HELPED
TO PUSH AN EASTERLY BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. SOME SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY JUST EAST OF DIA. A BIT
LIGHTNING ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING....EXITING THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING. OVERALL
COVERAGE STILL LIMITED. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BEGIN PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN CASE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY AS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF AROUND
100-200 J/KG IN THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL CIN. LOW LEVELS STILL
FAIRLY DRY...SO MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT MEAGER RAINFALL. SOME STORMS ALONG
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WINDS TO BE A BIT TRICKY ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY MOST LOCATIONS...BEFORE
GOING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...TROUGH WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AT THAT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND ALONG THE WYOMING
AND NEBRASKA BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MODERATED THAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED SPRING STORM THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS
DIFFERENCES IN ALL THE MODELS. LAST NIGHT ALL THE MODELS TOOK A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER TODAYS NEW MODELS HAVE
TRENDED IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS....THE GFS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY
ROUTE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS GONE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SLOWED DOWN. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO ABOUT 9500FT. DEPENDING ON WHICH TRACK THE
SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE GFS COMES TRUE THEN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF COLORADO. BUT IF ITS A
SLOWER SYSTEM THEN WE MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS...TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
THE SYSTEM TAKES WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND PLAINS AS SOME UPSLOPE IS NEEDED. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE IF 700 MB FLOW KEPT W-SW THEN
THEY WOULD DOWNSLOPE OUT AND BE DRY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INTENDED TRACK FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS
FORECAST. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW...EVEN HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MODELS SHOWING
SEVERAL INCHES...EVEN UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE STATE...STILL DO NOT KNOW WHERE THOUGH.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TO ROUND OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURGE HAD INDEED PUSHED INTO THE DENVER AREA...WITH MAINLY
EASTERLY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSSTHE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
DENVER AS WELL AS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER. STILL
EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DENVER AREA... THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TO MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE
DRAINAGE MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THURSDAY...MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO
CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE
LOW TEENS. HUMIDITY READINGS TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING WINDS SO...WILL NOT EXTEND RED FLAG WARNING PAST 8 PM.
CONDITIONS TO BE DRIER WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS LOGAN AND SEDGWICK
COUNTIES COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER. HUMIDITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH
LOWS BETWEEN 14-18%. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
INCREASED. DUE TO THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL RAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L/KRIEDERMAN


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