Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 241932 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early next week keeping dry conditions across the region. Warm days and cool nights will continue into Sunday morning...then turning hot beginning Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest temperatures inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable weather is expected late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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3 pm update... This evening... Weak high pressure over the region and accompanied by a dry airmass with dew pts in the 40s inland...50s along the coast is providing splendid weather by late June standards. Dry column only yielding some scattered strato-cu with a focus for the clouds across CT into RI as seabreeze moving inland provides some convergence. Also some additional diurnal clouds over the higher terrain but nevertheless mostly sunny skies. Given the dry airmass with dew pts in the 40s temps will fall noticeably with sunset given mostly clear skies and light winds. Diurnal clouds will also erode with sunset as well. Other than cooling temps with sunset a very pleasant evening ahead. Overnight... Another comfortable night with lows in the 50s regionwide except around 60 in the city of Boston. Given the ideal radiational cooling conditions followed by cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins. Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations. Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across the Islands and Cape Cod as short wave energy in the WNW flow aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the Mid Atlc coast and traces eastward...south of 40N.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday... High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting afternoon seabreezes. However with mean mid level trough axis just offshore cold temps aloft linger across southern New England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level lapse rates however should be enough deep layer dry air within the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of isolated afternoon showers high terrain however this is a result of it`s dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limit dew pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue with a dry forecast. Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the cooling afternoon seabreezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast. Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend. Sat night... High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another comfortable cool night with low dew pts...light winds and mostly clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Highlights... * Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday * Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night * Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term portion of the forecast. Will use a blend of available guidance for this forecast. Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the eastern U.S. A cold front will move through southern New England on Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster) bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in the Connecticut Valley Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Temperatures return to seasonable levels for the end of the week. Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England. There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder with these showers. Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends to lead to more dry weather. Not looking at any significant precipitation through the end of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence. VFR with light and variable winds inland...then seabreezes along the coast by midday or earlier. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR toward daybreak for a few hours in the typically prone locations. KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. East winds late Fri will bend to the SE and then S later this evening. Winds then settle back to SE Sat morning. KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday and Monday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and variable winds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence. Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track southeast of 40N/70W Saturday. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday and Monday...High confidence. Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG NEAR TERM...Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...Nocera/RLG MARINE...Nocera/RLG

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