Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281746 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1246 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A POLAR FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER TUE. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1 PM UPDATE...OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON THE CAPE...PRECIP HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS PULLED AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT OVER THE BERKSHIRES FROM NEW YORK STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS WITH CLOUDS PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST BUT MORE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONLY ONES SEEING FULL SUNNY SKIES NOW IS THE SOUTH COASTS OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THATS AS WARM AS WE ARE GOING TO GET TODAY GIVEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE CLOUDY SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ON THE OUTER CAPE WILL EXIT THE COAST BY 02Z...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. W-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E. CORE OF COLDEST H85 TEMPS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WILL DROP TO -10C TO -13C OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A NEW SNOWPACK ACROSS S NH/N CENTRAL AND W MA...WILL SEE TEMPS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS THERE...WHILE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS OVERNIGHT. READINGS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATED 340 AM HIGHLIGHTS... * CHILLY BUT DRY SATURDAY * MUCH MILDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY * RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER TUESDAY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION... 00Z GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD OFFERING A TYPICAL LATE FALL WEATHER PATTERN...AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULTS IN LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. AS FOR THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...OTHER THAN TYPICAL TIMING /GFS FASTER WITH FROPA MON/ AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS. THUS WILL USE A MODEL BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... SATURDAY...COLD START TO THE DAY AFTER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MU30S...WITH U20S AND L30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE TEMPS ARE 10-15 DEGS COLDER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE CHILLY TEMPS. SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THUS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ALL RAIN. COLUMN STRUGGLES TO SATURATE SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HENCE NOT A HIGH IMPACT EVENT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THIS YIELDS MILDER AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA BOTH DAYS. POLAR COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLE ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS/ LATE MON/MON NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE ECMWF SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN GFS. GIVEN TIME RANGE WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. TUESDAY...1042 MB HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE WITH TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGS COLDER THAN MON! HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...MU20S HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP POSSIBLE WITH A WINTRY MIX GIVEN COLD AIR WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DISLODGE. THURSDAY...TREND IS FOR DRIER BUT A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT HAVE LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN LATE AT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS...AROUND 2000 FEET...WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY TO 40-45 KNOTS AND MAY CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MONDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE OR AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AGAIN UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 FT ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND AROUND MIDDAY SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFT THERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS EARLY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. THUS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY. RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE REGION. MODEST SW WIND DEVELOPS BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. MONDAY...COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND SO MODEST SW WINDS CONTINUE. TUE...COLD HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 251-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT MARINE...NOCERA/EVT

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