Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 301423 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1015 AM UPDATE... FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED WITH EXCEPTION OF THE S COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF RI COAST...WHILE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS NE CT AND RI. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MIDDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL SLOW COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES AND STABILIZE E HALF NEW ENG. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT IN HIGHER THETA-E AXIS AND BETTER INSTABILITY. MODELS DO GENERATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN W NEW ENG WITH CAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT 0-6KM SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK. HRRR SHOWS A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS W MA FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE S COAST WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR NE MA. OTHERWISE 70S NEAR THE S COAST DUE TO GUSTY SW FLOW. IN FACT...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... NOTICED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHOWALTERS WILL BE BELOW 0 WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. AREA THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...ESP NORTH OF ROUTE 2. SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL BE DENSE OR NOT. TOMORROW... TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION AS LATEST GUIDANCE TREND IS TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT. REGARDLESS BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS ELEVATED THUNDER PARAMETERS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS IS BEGINS TO STALL OVER THE REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO A SLOW STORM MOTION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. PERHAPS IT WILL PUSH WORCESTER OUT OF THE TOP 5 DRIEST MAYS ON RECORD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... QUITE A CHANGE IN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE 30/00Z GUIDANCE FROM THOSE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT IT WAS NOTEWORTHY THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE LATCHED ON TO THIS SLOWER TIMING. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE RIDGING RETURNS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FAVORED A MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR DIFFERENCES...WHERE POSSIBLE. THE DAILIES... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT ALL MOVE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT THEN SHOULD ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA...SHOULD BRING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT... PROVIDING BOTH LIFT AND MOISTURE. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY...DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR LOCAL SEABREEZES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL WARM-UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE S COAST ERODING BY MIDDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-TSRA. FOG AND STRATUS MAY FILL BACK IN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE COULD SEE SOME LLWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES ON SUNDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MOST LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND. LOCAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. HOWEVER...5 FOOT SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CAA BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT...AND PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...EACH DAY. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MA WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

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