Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 010816 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 415 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT*** AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND*** TONIGHT... ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SATURDAY... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. GIVEN WEAK BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS. THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST 48 HOURS. WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO THE INTERIOR. PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...FRANK/RLG

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