Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 060543 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 143 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 140 AM UPDATE... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. STILL WATCHING A CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND MISS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS MAINLY IN NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY... A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT SURE IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. BEST SHOT IS NORTHERN CT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO PART OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SO ONCE THE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - SW-FLOW USHERING ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND - PERHAPS SOME COASTAL ISSUES WITH MARINE STRATUS / FOG - INCREASING RAIN / THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - CONCERN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES */ DISCUSSION... ENSEMBLES SIGNAL A H5 RIDGING PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW-ATLANTIC. ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY SW-FLOW OF WARM-MOIST AIR MAINTAINS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COOL FRONT WHICH BASED ON FORECAST CONSENSUS DRAGS INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE-INSTABILITY AXES FOCUS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS GENERATING A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MOIST-ADIABATIC THRU H7/ ALONG THE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WOULD LIKELY AID WITH DIURNALLY- FORCED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS H85-3 FLOW IS RATHER WEAK AROUND 25 MPH ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW EVEN WEAKER. SO WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND FORECAST PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WONDER WHETHER WE WILL SEE SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT WARRANTS FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FUTURE. THE WARM-CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 10 KFT. COULD WE BE SEEING HEAVY-RAIN PROCESSES? LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING SHOULD SEE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY BEFOREHAND OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD PROVIDE A HEADS-UP. WET-WEATHER CHANCES INCREASING BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO LIKELY POPS JUST YET. AS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT AS WELL. SOME INTANGIBLES: WHETHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BUCKLE THE SW- FLOW IN ADDITION TO SEA-BREEZES /PENDING IF INTERIOR WINDS ARE LIGHT/...AND FUTURE OUTCOMES OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA /AS TO HOW AND IF IT WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE FLOW TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND/. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IT MAY SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE COOL FRONT. APPEARS AS IF THE SLOWER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD BE FAVORED. OTHERWISE: WARMER THAN AVERAGE. MAY BE CONTENDING WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS / FOG AT TIMES AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR CROSSES OVER THE COOLER WATERS ADVECTED BY THE SW-FLOW. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME LOCALES AROUND THE 90-DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EAST TO NORTHEAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND SHIFT TO AN EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN FINALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW-FLOW. BREEZY AT TIMES. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-SHORELINE TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT - MORNING PERIODS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA TOWARDS SUNDAY. POSSIBLE TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT BREEZY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF WHICH MARINE STRATUS / FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-SHORE- LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. DRY FORECAST OVERALL WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. WHILE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WIND GUSTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...BELK/NMB LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/NMB FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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