Area Forecast Discussion
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159 FXUS61 KBOX 171949 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 349 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Out ahead of a deep low pressure center lifting into Southern Canada, rain is to be expected, possibly heavy at times along with the threat of localized flooding, for Friday into Friday night. A low risk of strong to severe thunderstorms mainly over S/W portions of MA and CT. High pressure builds back in for Saturday, returning with fair and seasonable weather Sunday through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing our next chance of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Quiet weather into this evening, clouds lowering and thickening overnight into early morning Friday. High pressure shifting S/E, winds beginning to increase out of the S with increasing surface dewpoints. Dry and clear conditions likely to prevail longest over the N/E resulting in the opportunity of radiational cooling and lows getting down into the low 60s, while all other locations drop down around the mid to upper 60s as showers encroach. Chance to likely PoPs into N/W portions of MA and CT by morning as tropical moisture begins to over-run out ahead of the lifting warm frontal boundary. More on that below.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Friday into Friday night... Main concern of a heavy rain / flooding threat, with a lower risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. An atypical event for mid-August, on the order of +1-2 standard deviations above average, with anomalous S flow of tropical moisture with precipitable waters in excess of 2- inches into a deep area of low pressure over SE Canada with surface dewpoints rising up into the low 70s. Will focus on 1.) a potential heavy rain threat associated with a low-level jet impinging upon a lifting warm front during the morning into afternoon period, and possibly again overnight lingering into Saturday morning, and 2.) afternoon-evening thunderstorms from the S/W, some of which may be strong to severe, at a minimum containing heavy rain threats. 1.) Potential heavy rain threat. Synoptically low-mid level forcing is apparent given convergence of a S H925-85 jet rearward of a lifting warm frontal boundary beneath ascent associated with lead shortwave energy, though the morphology and strength differs among the forecast guidance. Absent is upper- level support given lack of height falls, neighboring anticyclonic motions with the immediate mid-upper level ridge E, as well as the H3 jet axis N/W. But can`t ignore the anomalously moist environment and weak elevated instability being acted upon. K-indices exceeding 40 indicative of a potential heavy rain threat. Potential renewed heavy rain across E/SE New England during the overnight period with the warm front lingering SW-NE just offshore out ahead of a H5-7 westerly convergent dry-punch. Continued low- level confluence of tropical air brought N by H925-85 SW flow. Along with elevated instability, main threat of heavy rain with embedded thunder that lingers into Saturday morning ahead of a slow moving cold front and the aforementioned mid-level dry punch. Prefer high-res guidance which is in good agreement with the NCAR ensemble signaling significant probabilities of an inch per hour rain rates with storm total rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches over areas of S New England, especially over the S-coast W to E on Friday. Heaviest rain S/E to which CIPS Analogs agrees. Overall, despite a slight risk of excessive rainfall with tropical downpours exceeding flash flood guidance per WPC, given uncertainty of outcomes plus differences in forecast solutions, will forego head- lines with this forecast package. Leaning towards the potential of an inch or more of rainfall in a short period of time that would lead to urban, poor-drainage flooding. Likely PoPs. Will go with a heavy rain mention with a lesser threat of thunder given the low-level convergent forcing and warm-moist column up to around 14 kft coinciding with the tropical airmass. Warm-rain processes snailed. Likely low clouds and visibility issues associated through the day and overnight. 2.) The risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Two areas of focus for thunderstorm development where both shear and instability warrant the MARGINAL RISK of severe weather advertised in the Day 2 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center: Upstate NY and PA, and around the Delmarva Peninsula. The expectation is that within these two regions of focus shower and thunderstorm activity will develop during the afternoon hours and advect into S/W portions of New England late. As prior forecaster mentioned, there is marginal instability, however strong shear which can potentially compensate. There is, subsequently, a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms, along with heavy rain given the tropical environment. Though a lot of this will rely on how quickly the morning warm front lifts N/E and whether the S/W zones can destabilize with partial clearing. That remains unclear at this time. From the NCAR ensembles, lightning activity level encroaches from the W, diminishing E towards evening seemingly with lack of daytime heating and, more likely, a renewed focus of the low-level jet along the warm front S/E. Indications of a better convective environment further S/W of Worcester, with helicity noted in the 0-1 / 0-3 km layer given the turning hodograph profile. K-indices get up to 40 as lapse rates are conditionally unstable throughout the column, 5-6 C/km. Overall a high shear, weak instability event. Not overly confident given activity from the W will be entering a region of more anticyclonic flow within the mid-upper levels S/E, and it is quite possible that activity around the Delmarva Peninsula robs the environment N. Support given via hazard guidance from CIPS analogs. Will go with likely PoPs for both showers and thunderstorms over W/SW MA and CT towards the later half of the day, diminishing into evening. Keep with heavy rain but won`t mention gusty winds.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Highlights... * Showers linger early Saturday. * Dry with progressively warming conditions Sunday into Tuesday. * Wet conditions possible again mid week. Overview and model preferences... Longwave trof will rotate through the region and gradually lift and open as ridging is forced eastward by a cutoff moving into N Canada. This will lead to a transition, from more unsettled, wet conditions Sat, to a somewhat prolonged drier pattern by early next week. This is partially thanks to reinforcement of subtropical ridging which will help to build the ridging embedded within the mean jet across the N CONUS. It`s not until the secondary cutoff mentioned above phases with a Greenland vortex, allowing a transition back to more unsettled and wet conditions as the trof deepens and taps some of the subtropical moisture. With the 17.12Z model guidance update, there continues to be relatively good agreement in the synoptic mass/thermal fields such that overall forecast confidence continues to rise through mid next week. Details... Saturday... Although there continues to be good agreement that a cold front crossing the region will slow as it begins to parallel the flow aloft, soundings support dry air moving into the column from the W faster than the front moves. Although modest instability on the order of 500-1000j/kg of SB CAPE lingers in the morning, it will be race between the forcing provided by the front and dry air capping convective potential from the W. The dry air does maintain the CAPE but due to steepening lapse rates. SHRA/TSRA risk will actually drop through the day in spite of the slowed front as K- indices drop quite rapidly in response to the dry punch. POPs will gradually drop from W-E through the daylight hours. With some clearing of clouds from W-E mixing should allow temps to rebound somewhat, back into the low-mid 80s especially where enough sunshine is noted. Humid as dwpts will remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s. Saturday night and Sunday... Improvement from W-E through the overnight hours with some clearing. Dwpts will be dropping but remain in the 60s overnight such that low-mid 60s is the likely floor for Sat night min temps even as clearing occurs and pres gradient slackens. Pleasant on Sun as dwpts mix down into the 50s across much of the region. Coolest H85 temps during this period, mainly +12C to +13C, although with some W down sloping component to the wind. Therefore, expecting highs mainly near to even slightly above normal, low-mid 80s. Mon and Tue... Mainly dry conditions thanks to 1020hPa high pres sliding over the region through the period. Should be generally good eclipse weather across S New England save for a little bit typical diurnal CU on Mon. Warming H85 temps, from as low as +14C on Mon to up to +17C on Tue suggest gradual warming each day. Highs Mon in the mid-upper 80s, warming to the predominantly upper 80s by Tue. Overnight coolest Sun night, in the upper 50s and low 60s, then mainly in the 60s (mainly mid 60s per afternoon dwpts) Mon night. Although return flow and slight cooling aloft does suggest better destabilization on Tue with some CAPE already noted on soundings, best forcing is well upstream in NY/PA and the great lakes region, so will continue to highlight a dry forecast Tue. Wed... Models continue to be in relatively good agreement on Wed as longwave trof begins digging and deepening process near the Great Lakes. The sfc reflection is a low pres wave moving across S Ontario and Quebec, dragging a cold front through New England. This whole process slows as the synoptic pattern continues to amplify, so with K-values reaching over 30 and PWATS increasing to between 1.75- 2.00 inches on soundings, looking for a period of wet weather by Wed. Modest destabilization on soundings within this plume of moisture. Early CAPE values are nearing the 1000j/kg mark. However, given the front will approach early, this may limit destabilization somewhat. Will feature a risk for thunderstorms given the possibility, heavy rain possible given the relatively good agreement for high PWATS. Thu and Fri... Lower confidence in sensible wx details. Although synoptic agreement that longwave trof will remain in place, and likely just upstream, New England will remain on the cyclonically sheared side of the trof while dry air associated with high pres slides in from the W. Diurnally driven SHRA possible in this scenario, but it is dependent on how dry the column ultimately becomes.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday Night/... Rest of today...High confidence. VFR. Light winds S/W winds with an immediate sea-breeze along the E coast. Tonight...High confidence. CIGs lowering MVFR-IFR with increasing S winds and -RA/RA with a low risk of TSRA encroaching from the W. Lower confidence concerning VSBY impacts, mainly with RA. Friday into Friday night...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR CIGs prevailing. -RA/RA with embedded +RA with lower risk TSRA sweeping W to E, holding across E terminals late and overnight as SCT RA/+RA/TSRA develop into S/W portions of MA and CT during the afternoon, dissipating into evening. Strong S winds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, strongest over S/SE New England. Potential LLWS overnight with 40-45 kt SW jet across S/SE New England. All conditions improving as winds turn W into early morning Saturday. KBOS Terminal...Expecting RA/+RA to move into the terminal late Friday resulting in IFR conditions at times. Low risk TSRA. Low confidence concerning how quickly MVFR-IFR conditions develop on Friday and clear out Friday night. KBDL Terminal...Morning RA/+RA with IFR possible. Some improvement is possible into the later-half of Friday prior to RA/+RA/TSRA encroaching from the S/W. May dissipate before reaching the terminal. Low confidence concerning timing and outcomes with 18-22z TAF issuance. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday... Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR conditions will linger in a mix of low clouds with a risk for showers/thunderstorms early, but this will diminish through the day such that VFR dominates by afternoon. NW winds gust 20-25 kt mainly Cape/Islands. Some IFR conditions in fog Sat night. Sunday through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. Areas of IFR in early morning fog/low clouds, then improving to VFR by each mid morning and continuing the remainder of each day.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday Night/...Moderate confidence. High pressure and light winds will lead to good boating weather through this evening. But S winds will be on the increase over- night, gusting up to 25 kts across the S/SE waters Friday into Friday night. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY issued accordingly as winds will result in heightened seas up around 5 feet. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms sweeping W to E across the waters Friday into Friday night. Will likely be some visibility restrictions. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday into Saturday night...Moderate confidence. Lingering potential for scattered showers/tstms through the day, diminishing west to east Saturday night. Diminishing wind through the day. Some gusts 20-25 knots in the morning. Seas near 5 feet on the outer waters and on RI Sound, but trending lower later in the day. Small crafts likely early, but these will likely be dropped later. Sunday through Tuesday...High confidence. Generally quiet boating weather with high pressure.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell NEAR TERM...Sipprell SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...Doody AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell MARINE...Doody/Sipprell

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