Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 172054 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 354 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers will come to an end early this evening. Dry, but cold air will move into southern New England tonight and into tomorrow. Mainly dry weather expected tonight into Sunday, with a warming trend during this weekend. Another low pressure should affect the region early next week with mostly rain, but there is a risk of some snow/mix/ice in the interior.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Snow showers will continue late this afternoon into the early evening as coastal low begins to move towards the Gulf of Maine. Approaching shortwave as noticed in mid-level water vapor will help push this snow showers north and eastward. Thus cannot rule out a few flakes moving into the city of Boston around 00z. Really not expected much in accumulation over the next few hours. Soundings as well as model cross sections really show that the snow growth region loses moisture resulting in more of a drizzle and/or snizzle. Still a coating is possible near the evening commute so motorist should use caution if traveling over the next few hours. Tonight... This shortwave will push through the region tonight resulting in a end of any precipitation tonight. Mid-level winds will turn more to the northwest allowing for cold dry air to push into the region. Overnight temps will generally be in the teens with low 20s near the urban corridor and coastline. If locations decouple tonight then temps could drop quickly into the single digits thanks to fresh snow pack and clear skies. Highest confidence is across ORE and BAF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Thursday... Strong high pressure will build across the Mississippi Valley region pushing a coastal low off the Virgina coastline. Up here in the Northeast, flat ridge from the southern high pressure system will be in place. Continued westerly flow across the area as high temperatures will be near normal, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s. Dry weather for the day with plenty of sunshine. Guidance is hinting at some ocean effect clouds moving in during the afternoon, as well as over the Berks from any LES.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... * Dry with a warming trend through this weekend * Another storm may bring mostly rain late Monday into Tuesday with a risk of some interior snow/mixed precip/ice Quiet pattern expected through the weekend with a moderating trend as amplified trough moves into the Plains with downstream ridging and rising heights across New Eng. Near normal temps Friday then warming above normal during the weekend with readings mostly in the 40s. The aforementioned high amplitude trough is forecast to lift NE toward New Eng early next week with a stormy period sometime Mon into Tue with decent low level jet moving across the region. Timing uncertain at this time range but given the amplitude of the pattern, prefer somewhat slower solution with bulk of the event occurring Mon night into Tue. Ptype also uncertain across interior as ECMWF would suggest some snow/mix/ice with strong high pres to the N/NE. GFS mostly rain. Will take several days to resolve these issues. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday/... Tonight...High confidence. VFR out west to start. Any lingering MVFR- IFR conditions improving to VFR across RI/E Mass by around midnight or so. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds gusting up to 20 kts across S coastal areas, Cape Cod and the islands. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Improving conditions to MVFR by the evening with VFR after midnight. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Conditions should start to improve within the next few hours as precip tapers off. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday: VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday/...High confidence. Coastal low will push into the Gulf of Maine tonight switching the winds to a more northwest direction. A few gusts to near 20 kts but overall winds will be below SCA. Seas will remain at or above 5 feet through much of the period for the outer open waters. Thus have extended the SCA into Thursday evening. Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... 1100 AM Update... A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations. Cold conditions will persist through midweek which will limit additional runoff. Continued ice jams will remain on some of the rivers. There will be some increase of snow pack across interior southern New England as well. For details on specific area rivers, including observed and forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten NEAR TERM...Dunten SHORT TERM...Dunten LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/Dunten MARINE...KJC/Dunten HYDROLOGY...Staff

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