Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 211759 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 159 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A beautiful day to close out the weekend will be followed by cool and wet weather on Monday. Dry and seasonable weather expected Tuesday, but unsettled weather returns Wednesday through Friday with some showers at times. Dry and warmer weather should arrive over Memorial Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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150 pm update... A beautiful afternoon is in progress with just a band of mid level cloudiness working across the region, but overall skies were still partly sunny. Temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s through late afternoon, except mainly between 60 and 65 along the immediate coast as a result of sea breezes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tonight... High pres remains east of New Eng with warm advection pattern developing overnight. This will lead to a gradual moistening of the column from west to east with some light rain developing late across western New Eng. It should remain dry in eastern half New Eng as low level dry air hangs tough given proximity of sfc high just to the east. Lows mostly in the 40s, but close to 40 across portions of eastern MA where temps will radiate in the evening before clouds thicken. Monday... Overall a cool and wet day. Surface high moves offshore with warm front lifting north toward the south coast. Deepening moisture and increasing forcing for ascent will lead to rain overspreading the region. There is a risk for a period of heavier rain and isold t-storms late in the day and evening, especially near the south coast as modest low level jet develops. However, consensus of the guidance keeps heaviest rainfall to the south where better instability. With SNE remaining north of the warm front with SE flow, it will be a cool day with temps remaining mostly in the 50s, mildest south coast and coolest interior northern MA where temps may hover around 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Dry and seasonable Tue * Scattered showers at times Wed thru Fri * Starts to dry out Sat for Memorial Day Weekend Details... Monday night and Tuesday...High confidence. System departs southern New England Monday night with rain ending from west to east. Clearing takes place Tuesday morning, but will probably take awhile longer to occur near Cape Cod and Islands where we may not see clouds depart until sometime later Tuesday morning. Otherwise Tuesday looks to be the "pick of the week" as highs recover into the 60s and 70s. Gradient remains weak enough to allow for sea breezes near coast. Wednesday through Friday...Moderate confidence. Global models and ensembles feature another in series of anomalous closed upper lows dropping into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, putting our region in moist southerly flow through end of week. Expect clouds to dominate all three days with scattered showers from time to time, especially during peak heating each afternoon/evening. Since core of colder air aloft should remain to our west, it won`t be unseasonably cool as highs reach 60s/70s each day. But it`s a far cry from the 90s we just experienced last week. Saturday...Low confidence. Models lift closed low into Maritimes, which may be a little fast given usual bias of doing so too quickly, so we can`t rule out clouds or even few lingering showers. Even if that`s the case, we should have dry weather for the most of the upcoming holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/... Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions continue despite lowering and thickening of mid level cloudiness. A few showers are possible after midnight mainly across the interior, but VFR conditions likely persist through daybreak Monday. Monday...Moderate confidence. Scattered showers will overspread the region from west to east through mid afternoon. The steadiest/heaviest of the showers will likely hold off until mid afternoon across the interior and probably the late afternoon/early evening along the coastal plain. VFR conditions may prevail for much of the Mon morning even across the interior, before lowering to MVFR with localized IFR conditions during the afternoon. Across the coastal plain, VFR conditions may prevail until mid afternoon before MVFR conditions arrive by late afternoon/early evening. Monday night...Moderate confidence. MVFR to localized IFR conditions expected Monday evening in periods of showers. Some LLWS is also possible along the southeast New England coast during the evening. Improvement may occur from west to east after 6z, but low clouds and fog patches may hang tough through 12z along the southeast New England coast. KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. VFR conditions may prevail into mid afternoon Monday. KBDL TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. VFR conditions may prevail into mid to late Monday morning before deteriorating by afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Tuesday...High confidence. Lingering MVFR/IFR early near Cape Cod and the Islands, otherwise VFR with coastal sea breezes. Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. MVFR possible in scattered showers.
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&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence. Through tonight...Light winds and seas. Winds becoming SE this afternoon and southerly tonight. Today...Light NE winds veering to SE in the afternoon. Speeds less than 15 kt. Tonight...Southerly wind less than 15 kt. Monday...Increasing S/SE winds with gusts to 20 kt developing. Low risk of a few gusts to 25 kt across south coastal waters in the afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday night...Moderate confidence. Diminishing S winds and seas as weak low pressure exits region. Tuesday...High confidence. Light winds and calm seas with weak high pressure over waters. Sea breezes expected during afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. Persistent S/SE flow will bring building seas to south coastal waters, possibly as high as 6 or 7 ft by Thu. Winds remain below 25 kt. Scattered showers expected as low pressure meanders around New England. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...Frank/JWD MARINE...KJC/JWD

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