Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 091103 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 703 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO RETURN ALONG WITH THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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7 AM UPDATE.... VERY WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE U60S AND L70S AT 7 AM. CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING MAY YIELD A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS UP THE COASTLINE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE NJ AND LONG ISLAND COAST MAY CLIP THE SOUTH COAST BUT NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER THRU THIS MORNING. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NY/NJ AND PA...POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT INDICATED MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR AT LEAST KEEP AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. ALL IS QUIET ON THE RADAR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER SEE A FEW CELL DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NJ ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. BECAUSE OF THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND OVER THE CAPE AS LLJ INCREASES. OTHERWISE THE FOG POTENTIAL SEEMS TO HAVE LIFTED AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AT 20-25 MPH. TODAY... * HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS.* ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT BE AS MUGGY AS DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. ALSO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH PER CROSS SECTIONS. THEREFORE IF ANY STORM DOES DEVELOP THERE UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GROW AND/OR BE LOW-TOPPED. ASIDE FROM THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACKING MOISTURE...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGH WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KTS. WITH ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN VERY HIGH SHEAR AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS BUT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL. FINALLY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE ACTION LEADING TO A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE WATER TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE THE STORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER IT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD. TOMORROW... FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGERING SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A TAD COOLER WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRIER/LESS HUMID WEATHER & SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI AND SAT * BECOMING MORE HUMID ALONG WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS SUN AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD A DRIER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS BEGINNING EARLY THIS PERIOD. THEN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN CANADA DESCENDS EQUATORWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS YIELDS AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL TROUGH OVER THIS AREA. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -2 SD BELOW CLIMO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRANSITIONING TO THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWER/T-STORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH DRIER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY...CORE OF COOLER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. REAL PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR EARLY TO MID JULY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WHICH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. SAT...DRY/COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S BEFORE SUNRISE WILL CLIMB TO 80-85 INLAND WITH MU70S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY...WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. MONDAY/TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AS LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AHEAD OF POLAR VORTEX SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BECOMING MORE HUMID GIVEN THE MOIST INFLOW OFF THE ATLC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BURN OFF TEMPORARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REFORM TONIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE A FEW SPOT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLAND WHERE LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OCCUR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...TREND TOWARD VFR...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS...SHRA/TSRA EARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY WHEN MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...SO THESE SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT 4 TO 7 FOOT SEAS INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW RISK OF A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

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