Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 102114 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 414 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM IS LIMITING ORGANIZATION OF THE ACTIVITY. BUT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE THREAT OF LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING EXPECT SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO END WITH DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO W MA AND N CT TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY... ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. THURSDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT * MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND * MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DIFFERENCES AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOCALIZED BRIEF LIFR IN ISOLD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NECESSARY. MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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